LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead: Payrolls, Retail Sales and CPI
Dec-12 18:10
- Tuesday sees the full nonfarm payrolls report for November plus half a report for October, missing the household survey as the BLS was unable to conduct this interview-heavy approach during the government shutdown.
- Consensus expects nonfarm payrolls growth in the region of 50k in November but with some alternate indicators such as ADP pointing to weaker figures. October payrolls data are likely to have been weighed by deferred resignations following DOGE efforts from earlier in the year.
- Expect as much if not more attention on the lone November update for the unemployment rate after its surprise increase to 4.44% in September. The FOMC will be sensitive to any further increases here, with the median participant forecasting 4.5% for 4Q25 before 4.4% in 4Q26. There will however be added scrutiny to the household survey details with the government re-opening shortly before survey fieldwork would ordinarily have begun.
- Note that Tuesday also sees the retail sales report for October in an important update on consumer momentum after ending an otherwise solid Q3 on a soft note.
- Thursday then sees the November CPI report along with some individual values for October for those series that aren’t surveyed, generally estimated to be only up to 15% of the CPI basket.
- There’s uncertainty as to how this release will be displayed, with the BLS possibly showing as a two-month change from the last seasonally adjusted values in September. Other options could include the BLS simply commenting on Y/Y changes in the non-seasonally adjusted data with market participants instead then having to dig into the underlying data to calculate recent run rates.
- A recent theme of inflation data is that it’s been stubbornly strong at an above target rate but also not as bad as feared, with monthly inflation rates peaking in the June or July depending on whether you look at consumer price or input cost metrics.
- We suspect investor focus will continue to be on whether there has been any further acceleration in core goods inflation as well as signs of stronger spillover to underlying services after worryingly firm readings in the summer then faded somewhat in September.
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FED: US TSY 10Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.074%; ALLOTMENT 97.52%
Nov-12 18:02
- US TSY 10Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.074%; ALLOTMENT 97.52%
- US TSY 10Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 10.45% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 10Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 22.55% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 10Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 67.00% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 10Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.43
OPTIONS: Larger FX option Pipeline
Nov-12 18:02
- EUR/USD: Nov14 $1.1625(E1.4bln)
- AUD/USD: Nov14 $0.6750(A$2.2bln)
- USD/CAD: Nov14 C$1.4015-35($1.9bln)
US: White House Press Conference Underway Shortly
Nov-12 18:01
White House Press Secrtary Karoline Leavitt is shortly due to brief reporters for the first time since November 4. LIVESTREAM Leavitt is likely to tout legislation to reopen the federal government, which is expected to pass the House of Representatives at roughly 19:00 ET 00:00 GMT.
- Later this evening, President Donald Trump will host finance leaders at the White House for a dinner; attendees are expected to include the chief executives of Nasdaq and JPMorgan Chase, per Reuters.
- A potential political headache for the Trump administration: When the House of Representatives gavels in at 16:00 ET 21:00 GMT, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will swear in Rep-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ), who won a special election in Arizona in September.
- Grijalva will provide the 218th and final signature to a discharge petition, forcing a full House vote on releasing Department of Justice files related to the Jeffrey Epstein case. While Trump weathered a political storm related to Epstein during the summer without significant blowback, the story is a potential wedge issue for the GOP.
- Earlier today, the New York Times published a report suggesting that Trump may have had greater knowledge of Epstein's crimes than previously asserted.
- Looking forward, Axios reports that US and Saudi officials have been holding “intense negotiations to finalize a broad set of agreements, including a defense pact, ahead of next week's White House visit by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.”
