FED: US TSY TO SELL $86.000 BLN 13W BILL NOV 03, SETTLE NOV 06

• RES 4: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 3: 114-00   Round number resistance
• RES 2: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 112-23/113-00 20-day EMA / High Sep 24 
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-18+ @ 17:01 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 112-01   50.0% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase   
• SUP 2: 111-26   Low Aug 26
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 111-01+ 76.4% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase  

A short-term bear cycle in Treasury futures remains in play. Last Thursday’s sell-off resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA, currently at 112-10+. A clear break of this average would undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and the next key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 113-00, the Sep 24 high.

• USDA: CORN STOCKS 1,532M BSL ON SEP 1
• USDA: ALL WHEAT STOCKS 2,120M BSL ON SEP 1
• USDA: SOYBEAN STOCKS 0,316M BSL ON SEP 1

An informal meeting of heads of state and/or government takes place at Christiansborg Palace in the Danish capital, Copenhagen on Wednesday, 1 October. The main topics of discussion will be common European defence (in the context of numerous Russian incursions into EU member states’ airspace by drones and aircraft in recent weeks) and support for Ukraine.

• The common defence talks will focus on delivery of the EU's 'Readiness 2030' programme (formerly 'ReArm Europe'), which seeks to utilise up to EUR800bln to bolster the EU's defences and defence sector.
• The Ukraine talks are likely to include discussions on using frozen Russian assets held in the EU to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction via a ‘reparation loan’, as well as another round of sanctions.
• EU Observer reports, "Some or all of the frozen assets in Euroclear would be moved into a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) and transferred to Ukraine in 2026 and 2027, in exchange for zero-coupon (euro)bonds issued by the commission. The bonds would be backed by guarantees from a "coalition of the willing" EU member states and possibly other G7 countries prepared to support the plan. Von der Leyen on Tuesday insisted the plan is legally watertight, since it stops short of outright confiscation of Russia’s sovereign assets."
• Doorstep comments from leaders on arrival will start at ~11:30CET (05:30ET, 10:30BST). The closing press conference, national briefings and exit doorstep comments will get underway following the conclusion of the informal EUCO meeting at ~17:30CET (11:30ET, 16:30BST).