FED: US TSY TO SELL $82.000 BLN 13W BILL JUL 21, SETTLE JUL 24

Several military analysts and reporters have interpreted Vice President JD Vance's recent social media post as laying the groundwork for US President Donald Trump to authorise the use of 'bunker buster' bombs to strike Iran's Fordow nuclear facility. The prevailing view is that Trump is unlikely to have yet made a final decision. 

• Bojan Pancevski at the Wall Street Journal writes: "The VP seems to be saying "buckle up.""
• Alanya Treen at CNN notes: "This is the most significant language we have heard from any top official on the escalating conflict.""
• Shashank Joshi at The Economist highlights a recent comment from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz: “This is the dirty work that Israel is doing for all of us." Joshi notes Merz, "is not the only official in Europe who feels this way; he’s the only one saying it out loud", suggesting there is unlikely to be significant pushback from Western leaders if Israel escalates operations against Iran's nuclear facilities.
• However, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said a short time ago he is confident that Trump will not authorise an attack Iran: "There's nothing the president said [at the G7] that suggests he's about to get involved in this conflict."
• Barack Ravid at Axios reports that Trump is scheduled to meet with his national security advisors in the White House Situation Room today. It is unclear if the meeting has taken place yet. 

• @realDonaldTrump
• "We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran. Iran had good sky trackers and other defensive equipment, and plenty of it, but it doesn’t compare to American made, conceived, and manufactured “stuff.” Nobody does it better than the good ol’ USA."

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q2 GDP growth fell to 3.5% Q/Q SAAR compared with 3.8% at its last formal update on June 9.

• PCE has notably been marked lower to 1.9% from 2.5% prior (following weak retail sales data today), with residential investment also notably weaker.
• Growth estimates in table below.