FED: US TSY TO SELL $18.000 BLN 9Y-8M TIPS MAY 22, SETTLE MAY 30

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP) continues to poll strongly as the second leaders' debate approaches on 16 April ahead of the 3 May general election. Since hitting a recent nadir in support in February, the ALP has seen its support surge at the same time as that for the main opposition centre-right Liberal/National party coalition (L/NP) has collapsed. The ABC debate (starting 0600ET/1100BST/2000AEST) will be the first of the 'official' election period, with both the ALP and Coaliton launching their campaigns on 13 April. 

• The five polls conducted since the first debate on 8 April have all shown the Coalition's primary vote down in the low-30's, compared to high-30's/low-40's in Feb, while the ALP is bolstering its position in the two-party-preferred-vote (2PPV, see chart below). The 2PPV shows the outcome of the poll once all of the preferences have been distributed.
• While 2PPV polling assumes a two-party system (which Australia is not given the presence of the left-wing Greens, right-wing One Nation Party, and independents), the surge in support for the ALP would indicate that an increasing number of respondents opting for the Greens or independents in their primary vote are selecting the ALP high up in their preferences. 

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, by Primary Vote (LHS) and 2-Party-Preferred-Vote (RHS), % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Essential, Roy Morgan, Resolve Strategic, YouGov, Newspoll, Redbridge/Accent, Freshwater Strategy, DemosAU, ANU, MNI

• Stocks are holding moderately firmer ahead midday, cautious carry-over support from Monday as markets mull potential tariff relief or temporary pause in auto levies. Currently, the DJIA trades up up 66.14 points (0.16%) at 40585.61, S&P E-Minis up 15.5 points (0.28%) at 5456, Nasdaq up 43.4 points (0.3%) at 16872.61.
• A mix of banks, interactive media and tech stocks led gainers in the first half: Netflix gained 5.56% in early trade. Financial sector gainers included Bank of America +4.28%, Huntington Bancshares +3.16%, Wells Fargo +3.04% and Blackstone +2.94%.
• Tech stocks followed with Hewlett Packard Enterprise +4.69%, Palantir Technologies +4.22% and Crowdstrike Holdings +4.21%.
• The Health Care sector underperformed in early trade after Pres Trump target pharmaceuticals for trade probes late Monday: Albemarle Corp -3.38%, Molina Healthcare -3.09%, Zimmer Biomet Holdings -2.32%, Moderna -2.16%, Bristol-Myers Squibb -1.91%.
• Earnings expected late Tuesday include: Interactive Brokers, JB Hunt Transport, United Airlines and Omnicom Group. The following are expected to announce Wednesday: First Horizon Corp, Citizens Financial, Progressive Corp, US Bancorp, Prologis, Abbott Laboratories, Kinder Morgan, CSX Corp and Alcoa.

• US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.820%(ALLOT 56.62%)
• US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 28.34% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 2.67% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 68.99% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 52W AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.94