FED: US TSY 29Y-10M BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.889%; ALLOT 60.85%

• US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 3.972%; ALLOTMENT 63.05%
• US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 15.19% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 18.03% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 3Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 66.78% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 3Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.52

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1495 High June 05
• PRICE: 1.1425 @ 16:12 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 1.1348 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1224/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

EURUSD is in consolidation mode but continues to hold on to the bulk of its recent gains. The breach of 1.1419, May 26 high, confirmed an extension of the current bull cycle and opens 1.1573, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch lies at 1.1224, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the bull theme. Initial support is 1.1348, the 20-day EMA.     

• Politico reports that the US is planning to send 9,000 migrants to Guantanamo Bay, starting next week.
• "That would be an exponential increase from the roughly 500 migrants who have been held for short periods at the base since February and a major step toward realizing a plan President Donald Trump announced in January to use the facility to hold as many as 30,000 migrants."
• It’s another reminder of the significant changes in labor force dynamics over the past year. Immigration inflows, at least judging by border encounters, had started to fall in Jun 2024 after a Biden executive order tightened the southern border but they have since tumbled under the second Trump administration.
• April saw nationwide encounters of 29k, a -88% Y/Y reduction. For context, they averaged a monthly 144k in 2H24, 240k in 1H24 and 277k in 2023 as a whole.
• Deportations are going a step further and reducing the labor force. It increasingly puts long-term breakeven estimates of payrolls in the ~100k region into focus, in terms of how to compare the relative strength of last week’s May payrolls report as well as upcoming ones.