FED: US TSY 19Y-10M BOND AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.506%; ALLOT 56.07%

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt is shortly due to deliver her first press conference since September 9. LIVESTREAM

• On Friday, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation that adds a $100,000 fee for new applicants for H-1B visas, which allow foreign workers, like software engineers, access to the US labour market.
• The New York Times notes, “immigration hard-liners and far-right activists have long argued that the visa allows companies to replace American workers with foreign ones. The issue has divided even [Trump’s] supporters, and the president’s own stance on the program has shifted over time.”
• Later this afternoon, at 16:00 ET 21:00 BST, Trump will be joined by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr and other senior health officials in the Oval Office to make a ‘medical and scientific’ announcement. The announcement is expected to claim a link between autism and the use of Tylenol during pregnancy. Trump said in a speech at a memorial service for conservative activist Charlie Kirk on Sunday, “I think you’re going to find it to be amazing. I think we found an answer to autism.”
• At 17:30 ET 22:30 BST, Trump will depart the White House for New York City, where he will deliver remarks at the United Nations General Assembly tomorrow.

• The USD index tracks around 0.25% lower on Monday, easing from the overnight peak that saw the index print a fresh recovery high at 97.82. Markets are trading with a subdued tone amid a lighter economic calendar to start the week, with central bank speakers providing little to boost volatility.
• The EUR outperforms, rising around 0.35% against the dollar to 1.1785. Large option expiries for EURUSD between the 1.17/18 mark might define the short-term range, following the post-Fed volatility last week that saw the pair reverse from 1.1919 cycle highs. Support to watch is 1.1667. the 50-day EMA.
• Last Thursday’s advance for EURJPY resulted in a breach of 173.97 resistance, the Jul 28 high and bull trigger. The cross has been consolidating above 174.00 for much of the session, bolstering the medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 174.86 next, a Fibonacci projection, before the 2024 highs which reside at 175.43, a key medium-term resistance.
• SEK outperforms the G10 basket Monday, seemingly trading as a high beta Euro with no obvious tailwinds from the equity/risk sentiment or rate differential channels. Focus of course remains on tomorrow's Riksbank decision, which is a very close call between a hold and a 25bp cut.
• For NZDUSD, the sharp reversal from 0.6000 to current spot levels renews the focus on a significant pivot point at 0.5800, which coincides with the 50% retracement of the year’s range. Below 0.5800, 0.5728 and 0.5636 would be the most obvious targets for a deeper selloff.
• Eurozone and US flash PMIs for September and the Riksbank decision highlight Tuesday’s calendar.

Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

• RXX5 131/132cs, bought for 4.5 in 3k Total
• RXZ5 128/126ps, bought for 66 in 3.25k
• ERU6 98.125/98.25cs, bought for 3.75 in 5k (ref 98.02)
• 2RX5 97.6875/97.50ps vs 0RX5 97.9375p, bought the ps for half in 5k
• SFIF6 96.45/96.35/96.25/96.05p condor with SFIG6 96.50/96.40/96.25/96.05p condor, bought the strip for 2 in 4.6k
• SFIU6 96.90c, sold at 6.75 in 8k