FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.805%(ALLOT 60.09%)

Sep-24 15:32

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Aug-25 15:31

Looking ahead to Friday’s PCE report for July, unrounded analyst estimates we’ve seen look for core PCE inflation of 0.28% M/M after 0.26% M/M in June for a fourth consecutive monthly acceleration.
That comes from a fairly narrow range of 0.26-0.30% M/M across seven estimates, with a general pattern of upward revisions after PPI before modest downward revisions after import prices.
Assuming no revisions to prior months, this would see year-ago inflation at ~2.9% Y/Y as it consolidates a stabilization in core inflation at above target pace having recently bottomed at 2.62% in April.
It would also see slightly firmer recent run rates, with 3.0% annualized over three months and 3.1% over six months.
We’ll have a better idea of these revisions in Thursday’s Q2 2nd release, but without an idea of when they fell in the quarter (quarterly surprises have recently been turned out to be concentrated earlier in the quarter).
The activity data meanwhile will provide a useful update on consumer momentum early in Q3. Bloomberg consensus currently points to a 0.3% M/M increase in real spending, helped by a solid (nominal) retail sales report that also included upward revisions.
Income growth has been playing a strong role here and is expected to continue to do so, seen rising 0.4% M/M after 0.3% M/M. With nominal spending growth penciled in at 0.5%, it should see only a minor decline in the saving ratio depending on deductions.

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