UK: US: Trump Arrives At PM's Country Residence Ahead Of Talks & Presser
US President Donald Trump has arrived at the country residence of British Prime Ministers, Chequers, where he has been greeted by PM Sir Keir Starmer and Lady Victoria Starmer. While the president and prime minister will take part in diplomatic niceties in the form of a tour of the Churchill Archives and the exchange of gifts, they are also set to hold 'tete-a-tete' talks on issues including foreign policy and trade. This comes before a high-profile press conference expected at around 14:30BST (09:30ET, 15:30CET), where both Trump and Starmer will face questions from the British and US media.
- Starmer is facing a multitude of political difficulties domestically following the resignation of his Deputy PM Angela Rayner, the sacking of Ambassador to the US Peter Mandleson, and a scandal involving a close Downing St. aide, all coming amid record low personal approval ratings, simmering social tensions, and stubbornly high inflation raising public concerns and anger about the cost of living a gov't economic policies.
- As such, the Trump talks and subsequent presser could prove a useful 'release valve' for pressure should Starmer achieve progress on finessing the trade deal with the US or further US commitments to support Ukraine. Alternatively, should little or no progress be made, and Trump directly or indirectly criticise UK gov't policy it could make for a difficult political situation for the PM after the UK laid on significant pageantry as part of the US president's second state visit.
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SECURITY: Russia Foreign Minister Vague On Trump-Backed Putin-Zelenskyy Meeting
Speaking to Russia-24 TV, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says that "Russia does not reject any formats to discuss the peace process in Ukraine", but adds "any contacts of [national] leaders should be prepared thoroughly," hardly a firm commitment to talks taking place. Lavrov's comments come after the high-profile White House summit where leaders, including US President Donald Trump, called for a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy.
- Trump confirmed on Truth Social that he had called Putin and "began the arrangements for a meeting, at a location to be determined, between President Putin and President Zelenskyy. After that meeting takes place, we will have a Trilat, which would be the two Presidents, plus myself."
- Lavrov went on to praise Trump's stance towards only focusing on a permanent peace deal. Ukraine and its European allies have called for a ceasefire before full peace talks get underway, but Russia and Trump have gone the other way. Trump claims ceasefires often "do not hold up", and Russia is likely to view the different viewpoints as an opportunity to drive a wedge between the US, and Ukraine/Europe.
- Lavrov said that "[Russia] have never talked about simply seizing some territories. Neither Crimea, nor Donbass, nor Novorossiya as territories have ever been our goal." Instead, he claimed the war is about protecting Russian speakers. The minister also claims that Trump has "taken a much deeper approach to resolving this crisis, understanding that it is necessary to eliminate the root causes," referring to NATO's expansion.
EGB SYNDICATION: Finland 7-year Apr-32 RFGB Mandate
- "The Republic of Finland has mandated Barclays, BofA Securities, Danske Bank, Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan to lead manage its forthcoming new short 7-year Benchmark transaction. The transaction will have a 15 April 2032 maturity and is expected to be launched in the near future subject to market conditions." From market source
- This is not a surprise, as we noted two week ago: We expect the final Finnish syndication of the year in either the W/C 18 August or W/C 25 August. The Treasury noted in its Q3 issuance guidance that the maturity will likely be in the 5-7 year sector (note that in the annual funding plan this was seen as either a 7-year or 15-year).
- We pencil in a E3bln WNG transaction tomorrow.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX50 Futures Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- In the equity space, the dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 6523.63, a 1.764 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. On the downside, supports to watch are; 6399.62, the 20-day EMA, and 6275.78, the 50-day EMA.
- A bullish theme in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its latest highs. The print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and signals scope for a climb towards 5575.00, the Mar 3 high (cont) and key resistance. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Support to watch lies at 5349.70, the 50-day EMA.
