SOUTH AFRICA: US-SA Trade Negotiations May Start In Coming Weeks
Oct-03 06:22
- Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau suggested that US government shutdown may delay trade talks but they are expected to start in earnest within a few weeks. The two sides are now 'exchanging discussion documents about what the agreement could look like', with Pretoria planning to submit revised proposals next week. Tau took note of the fact that the White House was 'signalling something positive' on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which expired earlier this week, amid continued hopes for an extension.
- Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana called for a greater independence from external financing 'that is becoming less reliable' amid a 'distressing decline' in foreign health aid. In his view, 'the era of aid is largely over' and 'African countries must now approach development through the lens of sharper investment discipline'.
- Business Day reported that the government is considering 'a voluntary 3% revenue levy on unlisted companies to feed a central Transformation Fund', with contributors receiving level-3 BEE status in exchange.
- The National Treasury will sell 4.25% 2031, 2.25% 2038 and 5.125% 2058 linkers.
- South Africa's S&P Global PMI will be published at 08:15BST/09:15SAST.
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BRENT TECHS: (X5) Key S/T Resistance Remains Intact For Now
Sep-03 06:21
- RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $68.94 @ 07:10 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures have traded higher this week. Short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
BUNDS: The German Yield remains at 2.80%
Sep-03 06:20
- The German 10yr Yield should again be quoted close to that 2.80% level, this equated to 128.69 in RXU5 Yesterday, printed a 128.68 low and a 2.801% high.
- Today's low in the Sept expiry is 128.70.
- The early flow is again dominated by Eurex Rolls, albeit in small for now, but over half the front Month Volume is spread related in Germany, Schatz is the most active.
- Near term outlook for Bund remains to the Downside, of course NFP Friday could change that view very short term (on that Day).
- Immediate support is right here at 128.69, did print a 128.64 low on the 15th August.
- Further out, Cash and Swap Desks will be on the lookout for 2.85% = 128.17.
- Small resistance moves down to 129.18.
- Today sees, Services PMIs, but final for France, Germany, EU and UK. Out of the US, JOLTS, Factory Orders, final Durable Goods.
- SUPPLY: Germany €5bn 10yr (equates to 41.9k Bund) should weigh into the bidding deadline.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Lagarde, Fed Musalem, BoE Bailey, Lombardelli, Taylor, Greene, Breeden.
- SYNDICATION: Lithuania €benchmark, 10s, 20s.
UK FISCAL: Budget date to be announced today?
Sep-03 06:17
- As we noted last week, the earliest potential date for the UK Budget is now 12 November, with Wednesday dates possible through to 17 December (for more on this see UK FISCAL: November (or December) Budget?", 28 August).
- Politico has noted this morning that 26 November is the most likely date (which would be a week earlier than the earliest Budget held in recent years). And that the Budget date date is expected to be named today.
