CONSUMER CYCLICALS: US retailers: still trading at depressed levels.
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STIR: Modest Hawkish Shift In BoE Pricing, Under 45bp Of Cuts Priced Through Dec
Hawkish adjustments in BoE-dated OIS alongside broader risk-on price action, spurred by reports pointing to narrower U.S. tariff focus come April 2.
- SONIA futures last flat to -3.5.
- BoE-dated OIS shows 14bp of cuts for May, 18bp through June, 29bp through August and 44bp through year-end.
- We and the wider consensus look for the next cut to come in May. Our full BoE review can be found here.
- Flash PMIs are due this morning.
- BoE Governor Bailey will speak later today, we provide more colour on that in our BoE review.
- Weekend headline flow reaffirmed familiar domestic fiscal themes ahead of the Spring Statement, with cost cutting in Whitehall eyed and Chancellor Reeves continuing to stress adherence to the fiscal rules.
- The Spring statement will be published on Wednesday, as will the latest CPI data and updated forecasts from the OBR. Slightly further out, Friday will bring monthly retail sales and final Q4 GDP data.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-25 | 4.315 | -14.1 |
Jun-25 | 4.276 | -18.0 |
Aug-25 | 4.163 | -29.3 |
Sep-25 | 4.122 | -33.4 |
Nov-25 | 4.036 | -42.0 |
Dec-25 | 4.013 | -44.3 |
USD: In the red against G10s
- The Dollar edges slowly deeper in the red against most G10s, the SEK leads, but is well within last Week's range.
- The early Risk on Tone following reports that the White House will likely narrow its approach to Tariffs, although none of this is really clear, and potential announcements remain fluid, has kept the Dollar on the backfoot versus G10s in early trade.
- Higher Equities and a tick higher in Yield has put the Yen as the worst early performer, but USDJPY failed to break back above the 150.00 figure after only managing a 149.95 high overnight.
- Initial resistance is still eyed at 150.18.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 5929.04 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 5864.25 Low Jan 13 and a recent breakout level
- RES 2: 5801.77 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5770.50 High Mar 19
- PRICE: 5766.75 @ 07:23 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 5559.75 Low Mar 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 3: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. Moving average studies are unchanged -they remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold. Recent gains are allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5801.77, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 5559.75, Mar 13 low.
