AMERICAS OIL: US OIL: October 31 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary:Crude Recover
Oct-31 18:34
US OIL: October 31 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Recovers
WTI has regained ground after Trump headlines sparked volatility. The late rally appears to be driven by news that the Pentagon has greenlit providing US long-range missiles to Ukraine.
- Trump said no strikes on Venezuela, contradicting earlier reporting from the Miami Herald which stated Trump had made the decision to strike military targets in the South American nation.
- Aside from the Venezuela headlines, weak China data is adding to rising global supply with another OPEC+ output rise expected this weekend while focus remains on the impact of Western sanctions on Russian exports.
- OPEC+ will likely agree another modest oil output target hike for December three sources familiar with the talks told Reuters. The values cited by other outlets has been another 137k b/d rise.
- Russia isn’t expected to oppose any potential OPEC+ output hike plans of around 137k b/d for December, according to Rystad.
- China’s Official manufacturing PMIs slipped further into contraction in October to +49 from +49.8, below expectations of +49.6 and the worst result since April.
- IOC has bought five cargoes of Russian oil for December arrival from non-sanctioned entities, Reuters sources said.
- Saudi Arabia may cut its December Arab Light OSP to Asia by $1.25/bbl, a Bloomberg survey shows. Reuters survey expects a reduction between $1.2-$1.5/bbl.
- KPC offered additional heavy crude for prompt loading in November following an unplanned Al-Zour refinery outage, Reuters said.
- Chevron’s CFO said there’s a risk the oil-price slump persists into 2026 amid robust output.
- Goldman Sach sees Brent averaging $56/b in 2025.
- US product cracks are weaker today, although are set for weekly gains, supported by stronger than expected US stock draws earlier in the week.
- WTI Dec futures were up 0.7% at $60.98
- WTI Jan futures were up 0.7% at $60.59
- RBOB Nov futures were down 1.4% at $1.99
- ULSD Nov futures were down 1.3% at $2.43
- US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 18.85$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.5$/bbl at 39.81/bbl
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USDJPY TECHS: Clears Support At The 50-Day EMA
Oct-01 18:30
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 148.84/149.96 High Sep 30 / 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 147.16 @ 16:29 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 146.59 Low Oct 1
- SUP 2: 146.36 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low
- SUP 3: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support
- SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7
USDJPY continues to weaken as the retracement from last week’s high print extends. The move down has resulted in a clear breach of the 50-day EMA, at 147.60. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the key short-term pivot support at 145.49, the Sep 17 low. A clear break of this level would cancel a recent bull theme. On the upside a reversal higher would refocus attention on resistance at 149.69, the Sep 26 high and a bull trigger.
COMMODITIES: Crude Extends Losses, Silver At 14-Year High Amid US Shutdown
Oct-01 18:26
- Crude prices are drifting lower after falling sharply this week amid oversupply concerns ahead of OPEC’s Sunday meeting, with conflicting reports on the size of a potential November hike. The US government shutdown is also bearish for prices.
- WTI Nov 25 is down by 0.8% at $61.9/bbl.
- The move leaves WTI 7% below Friday’s highs, with this reversal lower refocussing attention on key support at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. A break of this level would reinstate the downtrend, opening $57.50, May 30 low.
- Meanwhile, spot gold printed another new record high at $3,895/oz earlier in the session, before unwinding most of the day’s gains to leave the yellow metal broadly unchanged around $3,864 at typing.
- Further gains in gold this week reflect rising haven demand amid concerns surrounding the US government shutdown which started today.
- The trend condition in gold is unchanged, and a bull cycle remains in play. Sights are on $3,909.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support to watch lies at $3,699.4, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
- Similarly, silver has rallied by 1.7% to $47.5/oz, taking the precious metal to its highest level since April 2011.
- Trend signals in silver remain bullish, with sights on $47.857 next, a 2.618 projection of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing, which was tested earlier today. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards the $49.00 handle.
US DATA: Shutdown Calendar Update: No NFPs/Claims, But Some Jobs Data Upcoming
Oct-01 18:22
We've updated our shutdown data calendar to make clearer that weekly jobless claims will not be released so long as the shutdown goes on (despite some speculation we had heard to the contrary, the BLS messaging last night and today has been clear enough). Shutdown Guide-Oct120252.pdf
- We are also confident that nonfarm payrolls will not be released Friday as today's Senate votes failed and any shutdown resolution will come only after the release time (there will not be any Congressional votes Thursday).
- That still gives us a little labor market data Thursday morning though it is not listed on our calendar: Challenger job cuts at 0730ET and the Chicago Fed's new Labor Market Indicators release at 0830 (which will provide a "final" forecast for the September unemployment rate, link here)
- Additionally, we heard on Bloomberg TV earlier today that BBG has plans to compile its own weekly jobless claims data via obtaining the state-by-state numbers, though we don't have confirmation or details.
