OIL: US OIL: December 12 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Steady
US OIL: December 12 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Steady
WTI Crude prices ended slightly lower and on track for a net decline on the week with focus on geopolitical risks, including Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and oversupply concerns. US equity markets have sold off due to weakness in tech companies though it hasn’t impacted energy markets thus far
- Baker Hughes reports US oil rig count rose by 1 to 414.
- Zelenskiy floated the prospect of putting the issue of territorial control of the Donbas to a referendum amid pressure to end the war. Nevertheless, Zelenskiy has publicly maintained his position that Ukraine won’t consider surrendering territory to the Kremlin.
- Brazilian oil output is coming back online from issues that took out over 300kb/d last month, increasing the probability of an oversupply in 2026.
- Recent attacks by Ukraine on one of the primary export terminals for Kazakh oil has limited output by an estimated 270kb/d since Nov. 29.
- Russia increased oil production in November m/m and is gradually achieving OPEC+ quotas, Deputy PM Alexander Novak said on Friday to Tass.
- The seizure of the Venezuelan oil tanker by US military could put up to 30% of Venezuela's oil exports at risk, according to Rapidan cited by Bloomberg.
- WAF’s outstanding oil cargoes for loading next month are trading at a slower pace than last month as Christmas events slow down deal making, traders told Bloomberg.
- Crude arrivals into the Dangote refinery averaged around 380k b/d between Sep. and Nov., about 30% lower than volumes purchased during the July-Aug. peak, according to The Punch citing Kpler data.
- Newly built oil tankers are heading to pick up crude rather than the usual refined fuels on their maiden voyages amid a shortage of vessels, Bloomberg said.
- Brent crude oil is forecast to average $65/bbl next year with a surplus of 1.9mb/d but inventories remain low, Barclays said, cited by Reuters.
- Brent is forecast to drop to average $60/bbl for Q1 2026, $57 for Q2 and Q3 before rising again to $59 in Q4, Rabobank said. Brent could touch $50/bbl, pushing the curve into a steep contango storage trade zone.
- Diesel cracks have fallen as the market focuses on Russia-Ukraine peace talks and assesses the impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
- WTI Jan futures were down 0.3% at $57.44
- WTI Feb futures were down 0.4% at $57.23
- RBOB Jan futures were down 0.4% at $1.75
- ULSD Jan futures were down 1.3% at $2.20
- US gasoline crack down 0.2$/bbl at 16.14$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 1.4$/bbl at 34.92/bbl
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USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 156.75 High Jan 23
- RES 3: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 2: 155.53 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 1: 155.04 High Nov 12
- PRICE: 154.53 @ 17:17 GMT Nov 12
- SUP 1: 152.84 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 151.54 Low Oct 29
- SUP 3: 151.03 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21
The trend structure in USDJPY remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Today’s climb has delivered a print above 154.48, the Nov 4 high and bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 155.53, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 152.84, the 20-day EMA.
US: Shutdown Deal More Beneficial To Republicans - YouGov
A new survey from YouGov has found that, “Roughly equal shares of Americans say that Democrats in Congress should have and should not have held out for changes to health care funding — such as extending subsidies for Affordable Care Act (ACA) coverage — before agreeing to end the government shutdown (41% vs. 39%)” The survey notes, “Three weeks earlier, more Americans said Democrats should than should not hold out for health care funding (45% vs. 32%)”
- Another YouGov poll conducted Monday — after the Senate reached the agreement to fund the government and end the shutdown but before the measure passed — found that “Republicans approve of the shutdown deal by 56% to 11%. Nearly half (47%) of Democrats disapprove and 31% approve.”
- YouGov notes, “The poll that ran after the post-shutdown deal also found that Republicans in Congress are seen as benefitting more from the deal than Democrats are (38% say Republicans benefit more and 9% say Democrats do); 20% believe Republicans and Democrats benefit equally from it."
Figure 1: “Do you approve or disapprove of the deal reached by Congress to fund the government and end the shutdown? (%)”
Source: YouGov
CANADA DATA: Building Permits Pick Up, But Still Negative For The Quarter
Building permits rose more quickly than anticipated in September at 4.5% M/M SA (0.9% expected), but this was largely offset by a downward revision to prior (-4.0%, vs -1.2%) in this volatile series.
- Residential permitting rose 4.8% to a 5-month high level, with non-residential up 4.0% rising for the first time in 5 months.
- However note these figures are in value and not volume terms, making the 11.2% Y/Y overall drop particularly poor. The real rise in September was 4.2% M/M. But for Q3 as a whole, the value of housing permits in constant terms fell to the lowest in series history back to 2018.
- For the 3rd quarter, permits fell 5.4% in nominal terms for a 2nd consecutive quarterly decline, with Ontario non-residential permitting driving the Q3 decrease (after jumping in Q2).
- Overall despite the September pickup, the softness in broader permits bodes for some softer readings ahead in housing starts and overall construction.
- The BOC's latest Monetary Policy Report notes "Residential investment is anticipated to grow modestly over the projection horizon. Housing starts are anticipated to remain elevated and grow modestly" though for business capex "Tariffs and trade policy uncertainty are expected to remain a significant headwind to investment into 2026."
