AMERICAS OIL: US OIL: Americas Open - WTI Crude prices tick higher again today
Dec-04 12:21
US OIL: Americas Open - WTI Crude prices tick higher again today following net gains yesterday but still rangebound since Nov. 23. Geopolitical risks for Ukraine and Venezuela are supporting crude, but projections of a record 2026 market surplus remain the major concern. US economic data have been mixed at best though traders expect the Fed to lower the Fed funds rate again next week.
- Ukrainian officials are scheduled to meet with US envoy Witkoff in Florida on Thursday. Trump said that Witkoff’s meeting with President Putin was “reasonably good”. Putin said that Russia hasn’t agreed with some point of the US peace plan, Tass said. Whether an agreement can be achieved remains highly uncertain.
- Concern surrounds ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia's central Tambov region yesterday although supplies to Hungary continue as normal. The CPC aims to complete repairs on its third SPM ahead of schedule to return to full operation after an attack which damaged SPM 2 last weekend.
- Turkey told Russia and Ukraine to keep energy infrastructure out of their conflict and wants energy flows to continue uninterrupted, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said.
- President Trump said that Venezuela drug cartels will be targeted and not just at sea. Yesterday, Secretary of State Rubio said that negotiating a deal would be difficult as Venezuela’s Maduro has “broken every deal he’s ever made”.
- Marathon’s 365k b/d Wilmington, California refinery reported unplanned flaring due to a mechanical / electrical malfunction, according to a South Coast Air Quality Management District filing.
- Short-term gains in WTI futures are considered corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would open the key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.
- WTI JAN 26 up 0.6% at 59.32/bbl
- US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 17.56$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.5$/bbl at 37.07$/bbl
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Support In Bunds Remains Exposed
Nov-04 12:19
- In the FI space, Bund futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday. A bear cycle remains intact for now. The move down that started on Oct 17 still appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. However, price has pierced a key support at 129.13, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA signals scope for a deeper retracement and open 128.92, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. First important resistance is 129.73, Oct 28 high.
- The trend structure in Gilt futures remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next upside objective is 94.00. Clearance of this level would open 94.24, a 1.618 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. Note that the contract is overbought, a short-term pullback would allow this trend condition to unwind. Initial firm support to watch 92.81, the 20-day EMA.
FOREX: USDCAD Rises to Highest Level Since April, Above 1.4080
Nov-04 12:15
- USDCAD (+0.18%) is rising for the fourth consecutive session, propelling the pair to its highest level since April 10, above 1.4080. Recent price action has been highlighting a reversal of the corrective bear leg between Oct 14 - 29. A recent doji candle on Oct 29 signalled a short-term reversal, providing an additional bullish impulse to the underlying uptrend.
- Today’s breach of the bull trigger places the next focus on 1.4111, the April 10 high and 1.4167, the 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg.
- The noted risk pessimism will be weighing on the Canadian dollar today, however, today’s Federal Budget remains an additional key risk; Citi see a "significantly more expansionary than previous" annual budget - and they see markets putting particular importance on the estimated budget deficit for the 2025 and 2026 fiscal years.
- They see these estimates being even wider than suggested during the election campaign, with some forecasts as high as C$100bln (reflecting weaker growth and reduced tax revenues, not solely increased spending). They conclude that the composition of new spending will be important for growth and any BoC reaction.
- Separately, Canada will release jobs data for October on Friday, with analysts citing the focus on the unemployment rate, where further increases from the current 7.1% could fuel dovish bets.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: Supra Sovereigns on Tap Tuesday
Nov-04 11:54
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 11/04 $800M Breakwater Energy 5NC2 9%a
- 11/04 $500M #Sharjah Islamic Bank5Y Sukuk +95a
- 11/04 $Benchmark Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan 7Y 6.375%a
- 11/04 $Benchmark Lao People's Democratic Rep 5Y 11.25%a
- 11/04 $Benchmark Standard Chartered Perp NC10 7.375%
- 11/04 $Benchmark QBE Insurance 12NC7 +170a
- $40.7B Priced Monday, driven by Alphabet's $17.5B over 8 tranches and Novartis $6B over 7 tranches:
- 11/03 $17.5B *Alphabet: $1B 3Y +30, $500M 3Y SOFR+52, $2.5B +5Y +40, $1.25B 7Y +50, $3.5B 10Y +62, $2B 20Y +72, $4B 30Y +82, $2.75B 50Y +107 (massive debt issuance includes $6.5B over 6 tranches: 3Y, 6Y, 7Y, 13Y, 19Y and 39Y).
