AMERICAS OIL: US NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES SEEN UP 33 BILLION CUBIC FEET LAST WEEK
Jul-23 18:40
US NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES SEEN UP 33 BILLION CUBIC FEET LAST WEEK IN THURSDAY'S EIA REPORT, REUTERS POLL SHOWS
- A Reuters poll on Wednesday found US energy firms likely added a near-normal 33 bcf of natural gas into storage last week.
- That compares with an injection of 20 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2020-2024) average increase of 30 bcf for this time of year.
- In the prior week ended July 11, utilities added 46 bcf of gas into storage.
- If correct, the forecast for the week ended July 18 would increase stockpiles to 3.085 tcf, about 4.4% below the same week a year ago and around 6.2% above the five-year average for the week.
- The EIA is scheduled to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Thursday.
- There were 98 total degree days (TDD) last week, compared with the 30-year normal of 90 TDDs for the period, data from financial firm LSEG showed.
- Early estimates for the week ending July 25 ranged from additions of 33 bcf to 56 bcf, with an average increase of 42 bcf.
- That compares with an injection of 18 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average increase of 24 bcf.
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US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Rate Cut Pricing Gains Traction
Jun-23 18:35
Surge in two-way SOFR puts and upside Aug 10Y Tsy calls reported Monday as underlying futures rallied initially muted response by Iran to US bombing over the weekend and after dovish comments on potential rate cuts from Fed VC Bowman and Chicago Fed Goolsbee if inflation remains muted. Projected rate cut pricing gains traction vs. this morning's levels (*), Dec at the highest since May 12: Jul'25 at -5.9bp (-3.6bp), Sep'25 at -25.2bp (-19.5bp), Oct'25 at -32.6bp (-40.7bp), Dec'25 at -58.8bp (-49.9bp).
- SOFR Options:
- -10,000 SFRU5 97.50/98.00 call spds, 9.0
- Block, 5,000 SFRQ5 96.00/96.12/96.25/96.37 call condors ref 95.955
- -10,000 SFRU5 95.75/0QU5 96.25 put spds, 0.0 0QU sold over
- -20,000 0QZ5 95.87/96.12/96.25/96.50 put condors, 4.0 vs. 96.865/0.05%
- +16,000 SFRU5 95.62/95.75 put spds, 2.5 ref 95.96/0.14%
- +7,000 0QN5 96.62/96.75 2x1 put spds 1.5 ref 96.795
- -4,000 SFRQ5 95.62/95.75 put spds, 1.125 ref 96.23
- -6,000 SFRV5 95.75/95.87/96.00 put flys, 1.75 ref 96.225
- -7,000 SFRN5 95.75/95.81/95.87 put flys, 1.0 ref 95.95
- -7,000 SFRZ5 put fly strip: 95.56/95.68/95.81, 95.75/95.87/96.00, 96.00/96.12/96.25, collects 4.5
- -10,000 SFRH6 94.62/95.62 put spds, 2.25 ref 96.39
- -5,000 SFRU5 95.81/96.00 call spds 2.75 over 95.62/95.75 put spds
- +6,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.37/96.50/96.62 call condors, 1.25 ref 96.155
- 2,250 SFRZ5 96.50/96.75/97.00/97.25 call condors ref 96.155
- Block, 2,500 SFRQ5 95.87/96.12/96.37 call trees, 2.5 ref 95.885
- 1,750 0QQ5 96.87/97.37 call spds
- 2,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.25/96.50 call flys ref 95.88
- 2,400 0QQ5 96.37 puts ref 96.69
- Block, 2,500 0QZ5 97.00/97.31 call spds, 8.5 vs. 96.765/0.10%
- Treasury Options:
- Update - over +77,300 TYQ5 112 calls, 28-27 vs 110-29.5/0.26%, appr vol 6.59%
- over 62,900 TYQ5 112.5 calls, 28 last
- over 76,200 TYQ5 113 calls, 21 last
- 4,000 TYQ5 110.5/111.5 put spds,
- 3,300 FVQ5 109/109.75 2x3 call spds ref 108-20.5
- 4,950 FVQ5 109.75 calls, 11.5
- 6,000 TYU5 111 puts, ref 111-17.5
- +32,000 TYQ5 113 calls, 21 ref 111-15.5/0.20, appr 6.68% vol (exp 7/25)
- 17,000 TYQ5 109.5/112.5 strangles
- 1,750 wk4 TY 110.25/111.5 call spds, ref 110-29.5, exp 6/27
- +20,000 TYQ5 112.5 calls, 20 vs. 110-29.5/0.19%, appr 6.71% vol
- -2,000 TYQ5 111 calls, 48 vs. 110-28/0.47%
ELECTRICITY: EU Commission Enables Targeted Industrial Electricity Subsidies
Jun-23 18:32
- The EU wants to allow member states to provide targeted subsidies to their energy-intensive industries under certain conditions, Handelsblatt reports.
- An industrial electricity price is currently being planned by the German government - the measure has previously raised questions around compliance with EU law.
- EU Competition Commissioner Teresa Ribera plans to present the CISAF on Wednesday, according to HB.
- Full article here: https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/energie-eu-kommission-ermoeglicht-den-industriestrompreis/100136772.html
BONDS: Europe Pi: OAT And BTP Longs Pick Up, Gilts Pull Back (2/2)
Jun-23 18:30
Elsewhere in European bond futures positioning:
- OAT: OAT has edged to long positioning from flat previously, compared to a brief period in short territory in March/April. The most recent week's trade was indicative of short setting.
- GILT: Gilt structural positioning is in its typical "flat" territory where it has been for most of the year, versus a brief jump to "very long" pre-roll. Some longs were reduced last week.
- BTP: BTP has edged back into "very long" territory vs merely "long" pre-roll (it's typically long/very long). Trade indicative of short setting was seen last week.
