MACRO ANALYSIS: US Investment Pledges Under Trump In Context [2/2]
May-14 15:44
- For context, the flow of total investment in the US summed to $4.0trn in 2024 (from standard national accounts), of which $0.9trn was in structures, $1.5trn in equipment and $1.6tn in IP.
- That total was worth 13.8% GDP in 2024, close to the high end for previous cycles having rarely exceeded and last higher with the Dotcom bubble, peaking at 15% GDP in 2000.
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OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Apr-14 15:38
- EUR/USD: Apr16 $1.1100(E1.1bln), $1.1200(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Apr16 Y145.00-20($1.1bln); Apr17 Y145.00($1.2bln)
- EUR/GBP: Apr16 Gbp0.8650(E1.2bln)
- AUD/USD: Apr16 $0.6350(A$1.1bln), $0.6400(A$1.7bln)
- NZD/USD: Apr16 $0.5950($1.2bln)
- USD/CAD: Apr16 C$1.4335($1.1bln); Apr17 C$1.4000($1.4bln)
CHF: Rallying Well Off Lows, EUR/CHF on Track to Finish Flat
Apr-14 15:33
- Having been sold through much of the European morning, CHF weakness has partially reversed into the close, with EUR/CHF on course for a flat finish after trading with gains of as much as 1% ahead of the US crossover.
- Helping drive the move will have been the upside of ~150 pips or so in CHFJPY into the WMR fix, after a generally muted session with few market-moving headlines.
- While firmer global equities will have been bearish CHF, the weakness off the best levels for US stocks futures has proved only minimal, leaving CHF moves here likely flow- or order-driven rather than a fundamental run higher for the currency.
- This leaves EUR/CHF as a notable standout in major assets in that it has reversed only a very small part of the post-Liberation Day U-turn losses. As a result, prices are within range of the bear trigger at Friday's 0.9222 low and a series of horizontal supported tested twice last year. Slippage through here would be the lowest rate (again) since the removal of the CHF peg in 2015.
FED: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.060%(ALLOT 96.78%)
Apr-14 15:32
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.060%(ALLOT 96.78%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 23.73% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 9.46% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 66.81% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.80
