OIL: US Inventory Data Help To Stabilise Crude
Crude has stabilised during today’s APAC session after falling over a percent on Tuesday. US industry data showing a crude inventory build has provided some support with WTI up 0.4% to $62.04/bbl (Oct contract) off its intraday low of $61.83. Brent is 0.3% higher at $66.00 after falling to $65.81. The USD index is up 0.1%.
- With OPEC steadily increasing its production targets and forecasts for a growing market surplus, supply trends are being monitored closely. CBA is forecasting Brent to fall to $63/bbl in Q4 2025 due to rising global inventories, according to Bloomberg.
- While a Ukraine deal is a long way off, progress increases expectations that eventually sanctions on Russia will be eased. A setback could see the recent sell off reverse.
- Bloomberg reported that there was a US crude inventory draw of 2.4mn barrels last week, more than offsetting last week’s 1.5mn build. Gasoline stocks fell 1mn barrels but distillate rose 500k, according to people familiar with the API data. The official EIA data is out today.
- Later the Fed’s Waller and Bostic appear and the July FOMC meeting minutes are published. Friday’s Chair Powell speech is likely the key event remaining this week.
- UK July CPI & PPI, euro area July CPI and German July PPI print. ECB President Lagarde appears on a panel.
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 21-Jul | 1000 | EU | EZ Q3 GDP Third Est / Q1 Fiscal Data |
| 22-Jul | 0900 | EU | ECB Bank Lending Survey |
| 22-Jul | 1800 | EU | ECB Lagarde At EIB Informal Dinner |
| 23-Jul | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 24-Jul | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 24-Jul | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 24-Jul | 0800 | ES | PPI |
| 24-Jul | 0815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jul | 0830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jul | 0900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jul | 1315 | EU | ECB Decision |
| 24-Jul | 1345 | EU | ECB Press Conference |
| 25-Jul | 0745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 25-Jul | 0900 | EU | M3 |
| 25-Jul | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 25-Jul | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 25-Jul | 0900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 25-Jul | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Confidence |
EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1901 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
- RES 1: 1.1750/1829 High Jul 10 / 01 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.1632 @ 06:16 BST Jul 21
- SUP 1: 1.1557 Low Jul 17
- SUP 2: 1.1518 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.1446 Low Jun 19
- SUP 4: 1.1405 Low Jun 11
EURUSD is in consolidation mode just ahead of its recent lows. The move down since Jul 1 appears corrective. The 20-day EMA has recently been cleared and scope is seen for a test of the 50-day EMA, at 1.1518. A clear break of the average is required to signal a stronger reversal. For now, trend indicators continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 1.1829, the Jul 1 high and bull trigger.
BUND TECHS: (U5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 131.95 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 131.33 High Jun 20
- RES 2: 130.76 High Jul 4
- RES 1: 129.92/130.21 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 129.79 @ 05:41 BST Jul 21
- SUP 1: 129.08 Low Jul 14
- SUP 2: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 128.90 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 128.40 Low Apr 9
Bund futures continue to trade above the Jul 14 low. A bear cycle remains intact. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 129.30, the May 22 low. The breach strengthens the current bearish theme and exposes the next key support at 128.97, the May 14 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, resistance around the the 50-day EMA, at 130.21, marks the key short-term hurdle. A clear breach of it is required to highlight a possible reversal.
