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When will the monthly inflation and employment reports be released?

• Our thinking on this topic is partly based on the 2013 experience, but also largely on interviews our Policy Team conducted with two ex-BLS commissioners available here and here.
• CPI: Starting with CPI: the BLS already released September data (albeit delayed), but as of this week will have postponed the October release. It looks unlikely that the BLS will be able to release October CPI at all: most of the survey and otherwise data required was not collected in the month.
• For November’s report, it’s a close call whether the data can be released. For example, it is questionable whether BLS field agents can collect 4 weeks of data in half that time. It will be a judgment call on the part of the BLS whether to publish their best estimate of November CPI. If they do, it is possible they linearly divide the price index growth over 2 months, to fill in a number for Oct CPI and Nov CPI. This would be unprecedented so we’re not sure what the data set would look like.
• Overall, CPI data look like they will be less robust than usual until at least the December report out in Jan.
• Nonfarm Payrolls: In better news, the BLS is probably in a position to start releasing data as soon as Friday, namely the September nonfarm payrolls report which by all accounts was already in hand as the shutdown began. Indeed we wouldn’t be surprised by a Friday morning release though this could slip into early next week (per the 2013 template).
• For the October data, we could see a partial release. The establishment data are collected electronically, so the payrolls figures will be published. However, the household survey – which is used to produce variables including the unemployment and participation rates - was never fielded, and may never be.
• For November, again looking at the 2013 example, the BLS was able to publish October payrolls on Nov 8, exactly a week after its originally scheduled date. The 2025 shutdown may have concluded just in time to allow for a similarly limited delay this time (so a Dec 5 scheduled release may be pushed back to Dec 12).

From our FAQs on the post-shutdown data deluge (PDF here)

What data has been postponed, and will postponements continue to be made after the shutdown?

• We assume that federal agencies will fully re-open on Thursday November 14.
• The only real historical analogue to the current situation is the 2013 shutdown which lasted from Oct 1 through Oct 16. That was only a little over 2 weeks compared with the roughly 6 weeks in the current shutdown, and even so it caused multiple data release postponements and even cancellations that reverberated through December.
• Our PDF includes an appendix of the key federal government data points that were postponed from their original release dates in October through the end of this week (we don’t expect any data to be released as scheduled by this Friday).
• In 2013, knock-on effects kept hitting for weeks and months after the shutdown ended, with November releases being postponed. That will be worse this time. It probably increases the probability we will get “doubled-up” releases, certainly for Census Bureau numbers as was the case in 2013, but this time given the logjam it could force combined releases for data points by the BLS too.

When will updated data release schedules be available?

• In October 2013’s shutdown, then-President Obama signed the re-opening bill late Wednesday Oct 16. Federal employees went "back to work" Thursday Oct 17 and on that day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a schedule for postponed and upcoming data releases: we publish the major postponements published by the BLS in an appendix below.
• Almost every data point was postponed, even those due out in November, as the BLS attempted to work through the backlog and collect underlying data.  The BLS's first post-shutdown release was Oct 21, which was the following Monday. September Nonfarm Payrolls, which were due out Oct 4, were released Oct 22.
• The BEA and Census Bureau weren't able to come up with a new release schedule until Tuesday Oct 21. BEA is in a relatively tougher spot because it needs data inputs from other federal agencies (including Census Bureau and BLS) for key data points including PCE and GDP, both of which were due to see the latest updates in late October.
• We would expect a similar schedule this time assuming funding is restored by late Wednesday, with BLS able to update on Thursday or at latest Friday on its updated schedule but the BEA and Census Bureau to follow behind by a few days.
• However there will be ongoing assessments as agency workers determine what they are and are not able to compile, so this will be a process, rather than an all-at-once release.

• RES 4: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 178.82 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 178.54 @ 16:29 GMT Nov 11 
• SUP 1: 175.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 174.82 Low Oct 17 
• SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 173.88 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low  

The trend in EURJPY remains bullish and a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains signal scope for 178.94 next, a 1.236 projection of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 175.40. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.