AMERICAS OIL: US gas output hinges on two price-sensitive basins
US Gas Output in 2025-26 Hinges in Two Price Sensitive Basins
• Bloomberg NEF reports output from Appalachia and Haynesville are typically half the US total and total output is likely to exceed 109bcf/d by Dec 2026.
• These two basins are the most price-sensitive while the Permian Basin is driven primarily by oil economics. While the former two are seen as swing producers, adjusting output in reaction to price changes, the Permian’s steady supply will be a stabilizing force for the market.
• Average US gas output is expected to rise to 107.2bcf/d by December 2025 from 105.9bcf/d last December based on BloombergNEF’s forecast. Production is seen rising to 109.3bcf/d in December 2026.
• The three basins account for more than 60% of total gas output in the lower-48 states with Appalachia and Haynesville a combined 45%.
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USD: Greenback Builds on PMI Gains
Greenback benefits from those better-than-expected PMI numbers, which lifts 10y yields back toward the prevailing levels at the Friday close of 4.3967%. The move is underpinning USD gains to put EUR/USD through to new lows and tilt USD/JPY closer toward Y154.50.
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CANADA: Freeland Quits, Decries 'Costly Political Gimmicks' In Parting Shot @ PM
Finance Minister and Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland has resigned from Cabinet just hours ahead of the planned delivery of the gov'ts Fall Economic Statement. In a letter posted on X, Freeland says that PM Justin Trudeau asked on 13 Dec for her resignation as finance minister and offered her another Cabinet post. She says she is turning this offer down, claiming "To be effective, a Minister must speak on behalf of the PM and with his full confidence. In making your decision, you made clear that I no longer credibly enjoy that confidence and possess the authority that comes with it." She says that she and Trudeau have been "at odds" in recent weeks on gov't policy, and claims that the gov't must avoid "costly political gimmicks" in the face of incoming tariffs from the Trump administration in the US.
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- Freeland's resignation would just months ago have been seen as unthinkable. Having been one of Trudeau's closest allies in gov't she was viewed as a potential frontrunner to replace the PM as head of the centre-left Liberal Party amid declining opinion polling support for the incumbents.
- With the Liberals facing a heavy defeat in the Cloverdale–Langley City by-election taking place today, and the delivery of the FES now thrown into turmoil, the main opposition Conservatives will be looking to exploit evident divisions having already held three confidence votes in the Trudeau gov't since September.
