The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is trading above the 50-day EMA. The average, currently at 6637.80, has been pierced but remains intact - for now. Note that the Oct 10 low of 6540.25 marks the key short-term support. The trend structure in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish. The breach of 5689.00, the Oct 2 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
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Sell-side names continue to adjust their RBA calls in a hawkish direction after the latest round of monthly CPI data. TD Securities note that “CPI is running hotter than the RBA would probably like and with activity holding up, this prompts a change of RBA call. We no longer forecast RBA cuts in November and February”. They will issue a full update of their view on Friday. They recommended paying November ‘25 RBA-dated OIS alongside this call change.
0RZ5 97.9375/97.75ps 1x2 with 2RZ5 97.75/97.625 ps 1x2, sold the strip at 2.25 in 2.5k.
ERM6 98.25/98.37cs, bought for 2.25 in 10k.