EQUITIES: US Futures Pressure Alltime Highs Despite Incoming Trade Letters
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher this week as the contract extends the recovery that started Jun 23. This exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 76.68 pts or -0.19% at 39569.68 and the TOPIX ended 10.9 pts higher or +0.39% at 2823.24.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 0.495 pts or +0.01% at 3510.177 and the HANG SENG ended 111.2 pts higher or +0.46% at 24139.57.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 186.25 pts or -0.76% at 24267.15, FTSE 100 lower by 17.31 pts or -0.19% at 8958.1, CAC 40 down 51.24 pts or -0.65% at 7851.83 and EuroStoxx 50 down 44.27 pts or -0.81% at 5394.
- Dow Jones mini down 250 pts or -0.56% at 44651, S&P 500 mini down 33.25 pts or -0.53% at 6290.5, NASDAQ mini down 116.25 pts or -0.51% at 22895.
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US TSY OPTIONS: TYN5 112.00 Calls Still Trading
TYN5 112.00 calls continue to trade, ~2.6K given at 0-02 this time, over 17.5K lots have traded at that level today.
ECB: Small Upward Revision To Latest ECB Wage Tracker; Broader Trend Intact
There were slight upward revisions to the ECB’s forward looking wage tracker compared to the April vintage, but the broader theme of softening compensation pressures remains intact.
- The tracker excluding one-off payments is seen at 3.082% in Q4 2024 (vs 3.024% in the April iteration). The ECB projects compensation per employee growth at 2.8% by the last quarter of this year, down from 3.8% in Q1.
- There were also upward revisions to the share of employees covered by the wage tracker (45% in Q4 2025 vs 43% in April).
- From the ECB: “The downward trend of the forward-looking wage tracker for the remainder of 2025 partly reflects the mechanical impact of large one-off payments (that were paid in 2024 but drop out in 2025) and the front-loaded nature of wage increases in some sectors in 2024.”
- Little impact in ECB implied rates following the release, as expected.
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY - Some attention on the EUR and Yen
Bringing your attention to Monday and the Yen Expiry size.
Of note:
EURUSD 2.31bn at 1.1400 (could act as magnet, although the US CPI will determine the move in the spot before expiry at 15.00BST/10.00ET).
USDJPY 1.11bn at 145.00.
EURUSD 1.11bn at 1.1400 (thu).
EURUSD 1.37bn at 1.1400 (fri).
EURUSD 1.25bn at 1.1400 (mon).
USDJPY 4.57bn at 145.00 (mon).
- EURUSD: 1.1400 (2.31bn), 1.1500 (836mln).
- GBPUSD: 1.3450 (758mln).
- USDJPY: 145.00 (1.11bn).
- AUDUSD: 0.6495 (400mln), 0.6500 (346mln).
- AUDNZD: 1.0800 (300mln).
