RUSSIA: US Envoy Meets Russian Negotiator as Impatience Grows Over Ceasefire
- US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev met on Wednesday and Thursday in Washington amid growing frustration in the US over Russia’s slow negotiations towards reaching a ceasefire. Citing a person familiar with the talks, Bloomberg say the US is now waiting for Dmitriev to report back to President Putin before the two sides move forward with any next steps.
- The Russian federal budget's oil and gas revenues fell year-on-year for the second consecutive month in March, dropping 17% to RUB 1.08trln after plunging 18.4% in February amid falling oil prices, the strengthening of the ruble and a decline in oil and gas production, Vedomosti report.
- In March, activity of CNY exchange trading on the Moscow Exchange decreased compared to the previous month, but the average daily volume consistently exceeded RUB 100bln, Kommersant report.
- Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko continues his visit to Cuba for talks on trade and economic cooperation. The Bank of Russia reports weekly money supply data this afternoon.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Double Top Reversal Threat
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6166.50 High Jan 19
- RES 2: 6019.64 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 5884.00/5924.0 High Mar 4 / Low Feb 25
- PRICE: 5825.75 @ 07:12 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 5744.00 Low Mar 4
- SUP 2: 5730.00 Low Sep 18 ‘24
- SUP 3: 5698.25 Low 50.0% retrace of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 ‘24 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24
A sharp sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract this week, reinforces a short-term bear threat. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday - price has breached support at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. This highlights a stronger reversal and a double top pattern on the daily scale. A resumption of weakness would open 5698.25, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6019.64, the 50-day EMA.
GILTS: Expect a Volatile Open
- Also for Supply this Morning, UK £4.25bn 2030, would equate to 20.5k Gilt, could weigh, although EGBs are already deep in the red, so will be a punchy open for the Gilt contract.
- At current levels, sees a whopping wide 91.43/92.52 range for Calls.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Bullish But Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5498.00 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 5373.00 Low Mar 4
- SUP 2: 5328.00 Low Feb 106
- SUP 3: 5281.53 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 5112.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support
The trend in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. However, the contract has traded in a volatile manner this week and pulled back from Monday’s high. Key S/T support at 5394.00, the Feb 28 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards the 50-day EMA at 5281.53. For bulls, a resumption of the trend would open 5600.00.
