AMERICAS OIL: US ENERGY – What to Watch: EIA Oil Stocks
Sep-24 11:26
US ENERGY – What to Watch: EIA Oil Stocks
- The EIA weekly petroleum inventory data for the week ending Sep. 19 is due today at 10:30ET (15:30BST). Data is expected to show a crude build of 0.69mbbl and with a draw of 0.74mbbl for gasoline and build of 0.06mbbl for distillates and a 1.05 percentage point decline in refinery utilization, a Bloomberg survey shows.
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STIR: Late Fedspeak Could See Further Paring Of Reaction To Powell
Aug-25 11:23
- Fed Funds implied rates range from 1bp lower (Sep) to 2.5bp higher (Mar) from Friday’s close but still hold a large part of the dovish shift seen on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
- There’s still been a sizeable adjustment off dovish extremes though, with implied cuts to year-end at 53bp currently vs almost 58bp at one point on Friday (but 48bp pre-Powell).
- Recall that Powell on Friday noted that "with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance". The risks appear to have shifted since the July meeting as "downside risks to employment are rising”.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 21.5bp Sep, 33.5bp Oct, 53bp Dec, 66bp Jan and 80bp Mar.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.02% (SFRH7) is 2bp higher on the day after Friday’s close of 3.00% was the lowest since late April. It probes the well-kept range seen since the Aug 1 payrolls report of 125bp +/-5bp of cuts.
- Today’s Fedspeak could see some further ‘patient’ rhetoric, something generally seen last week prior to Powell, which could see some renewed focus on the “may” aspect of Powell’s remarks.
- 1515ET - Dallas Fed’s Logan (’26 voter, hawk) speaks at Banxico conference. This will be her first post-July FOMC comments having said on Jul 16 that she supports holding rates to keep cooling inflation and that the tariff impact won’t be clear until at least into the fall.
- 1915ET – NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) gives keynote remarks at Banxico conference. Speaking after the weak revisions of the Aug 1 payrolls report, he said Aug 2 that “modestly restrictive” policy is still needed and that the labor market is “still solid”. He sees economic growth rebounding in 2026.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Still Present
Aug-25 10:56
- On the commodity front, the medium-term trend condition in Gold remains bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways direction that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. On the downside, first key support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low. First support is $3311.6, the Aug 20 low.
- In the oil space, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and recent short-term gains appear corrective - for now. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Trend Structure Remains Bullish
Aug-25 10:47
- In FX, the trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Support at the 50-day EMA remains intact, at 1.1596. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high.
- Strong gains on Friday in GBPUSD signals the end of the recent corrective phase - Friday’s reversal pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. An extension higher would refocus attention on the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, 76.4% of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.
- USDJPY traded sharply lower Friday highlighting a potential bearish threat. The bear trigger has been defined at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 145.40, the 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg.
