EQUITIES: US Emini falls to session low

EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic speaking at a press briefing at the OECD trade ministerial in Paris. Says that the main message at the talks "is strong support for multi-lateral ties [and a] strong rules-based system." In a similar line to that taken earlier, Sefcovic says that he had a "substantive and constructive discussion" with USTR Jamieson Greer, and that these talks will continue. On the escalation in US steel tariffs to 50% (calls it a "surprise"), Sefcovic he said he discussed the matter with Greer and that he "told him we strongly regret it, and it does not help negotiations." Says talks with the US "are covering all the issues". Sefcovic: "We clearly have the same challenges as the US on steel, which is global overcapacity."

• Sefcovic: "I still believe in negotiations with the US [and] believe we can achieve a positive result, but [we] are ready to defend our interests." Says that discussions on EU countermeasures are ongoing, "We are following a rules-based procedure".
• On other nations:
  • China: Sefcovic says he had a "focused" meeting with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao. Says "we are working hard to address issues and prepare for the July EU-China summit."
  • India: Says that talks focused on agriculture will allow the trade negotiation process to advance further.
  • Australia: Sefcovic says there has been "re-engagement in our free trade agreement negotiations" and he "believes we can achieve substantial progress this year."

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 06/04 $Benchmark RBC 60NC5 7.125%a
• 06/04 $Benchmark British Colombia 10Y SOFR+95
• 06/04 $Benchmark Macquarie 3Y +75a, 3Y SOFR
• 06/04 $Benchmark IDA 5Y SOFR+46
• $16.2B Priced Tuesday

• EURAUD has been broadly respecting a 1.75-77 range over the past two weeks, and despite multiple tests below the 50-day EMA, has failed to close below this mark. A move back below the average, intersecting around 1.75, would also threaten a support trendline drawn from the February lows at 1.7475. Should AUDUSD make a meaningful attempt above 0.6500, this could signal scope for EURAUD to move back to the May lows at 1.7248 (shown below).
• We noted that while Australian Q1 GDP was weaker-than-expected and slower than Q4, it was impacted by extreme weather events in the quarter which impacted exports and domestic demand. Thus, there is likely to be some positive payback in Q2 and so a reaction by the RBA to the weakness at its July 8 decision is not assured.
• In similar vein, and ahead of the Bank of Canada, EURCAD appears vulnerable to a close below the 50-day EMA at 1.5591. Trendline support also intersects at 1.5555.