SECURITY: US Edges Closer To Imposing New Penalties On Russia

Oct-15 16:16

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters, “anyone purchasing Russian energy is subsidizing attacks on the Ukrainian people,” per Reuters. Bessent’s comment comes as the US appears to be edging towards imposing new penalties on Russia, and the Trump administration weighs up selling Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles. 

  • Earlier today, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at the NATO defence ministerial meeting in Brussels, “If this war does not end, if there is no path to peace in the short term, then the United States, along with our allies, will take the steps necessary to impose costs on Russia for its continued aggression.”
  • US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker told La Repubblica yesterday, “Tomorrow, the US will make an important announcement regarding arms supplies to Ukraine… There are almost—I don’t want to say unlimited possibilities—but certainly there are many consequences for not reaching a peace agreement that could be used against the Russians.”
  • Politico reports that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) “left the door open Tuesday to voting on a long-stalled Russia sanctions bill as soon as this month. He didn’t commit to putting it on the floor — noting he still has to coordinate strategy with the White House — but said he believes the issue is ‘pretty ripe.’”
  • US Senators are also working to set up a bipartisan meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alongside his White House meeting with Trump on Friday.                         

Historical bullets

EUROZONE DATA: August Indeed Wage Tracker Steady, More Interest In ECB Series

Sep-15 16:10

Eurozone posted wage growth eased back to 2.55% Y/Y in August, after 2.67% in July and 2.55% in June (with small upward revisions seen to prior months) according to the latest Indeed wage tracker. That meant 3m Y/Y growth was broadly steady at 2.59% Y/Y (vs 2.56% prior). 

  • As we have noted in recent months, the Indeed wage tracker’s usefulness as an indicator has declined since the ECB started publishing its own forward-looking negotiated wage tracker. Additionally, there remain some questions marks around the robustness of the data, particularly with Italy registering a supposed fourth consecutive month of 0% posted wage growth. The Eurozone-wide sample also remains dominated by observations in France.
  • The ECB’s next wage tracker update will be released on Wednesday. At the September press conference, President Lagarde noted that “Forward-looking indicators, including the ECB’s wage tracker and surveys on wage expectations, suggest that wage growth will moderate further”. 
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PRECIOUS METALS: Gold Extending Higher Again, Fresh ATH Attained

Sep-15 16:04

Gold is extending higher again, piercing last Tuesday's prior all-time high of $3,674, currently up 1% today at $3,679.

  • A clear breach of last Tuesday's high would expose round number resistance at $3,700.
  • Silver has also rallied over the past few hours, now up 1% on the session at $42.6/oz. Silver is testing resistance at $42,606 (2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing), with next resistance seen at $42.974 / $43.000

ITALY: Looking To Postpone Bank Tax Deduction In 2027

Sep-15 15:59

"*ITALY IS DRAFTING PLANS TO RAISE €1.5 BILLION MORE FROM BANKS" Bloomberg
"*ITALY'S GOVERNMENT EYES POSTPONING 2027 TAX DEDUCTION FOR BANKS" Bloomberg