UK: US Deal Unlikely To Be Comprehensive, But Boost To PM's Standing Nonetheless

May-08 07:57

The gov't now confirming that an agreement on tariffs with the US will be announced later today. In terms of what is included, an important distinction will be on whether a 'trade deal' or 'trade agreement' is announced. As former BoE MPC member Jonathan Haskell told the BBC earlier today, "Trade deals are limited and short-term and partial, just covering a few items. Trade agreements are broad-based and long-term.". Says that a 'deal' could end up being a short-term change that sees, for example, specific tariffs paused for a certain amount of time. 

  • Dharshini David at the BBC: "We expect there to be focus on reducing the extra tariffs areas such as the car industry and steelmakers face, and also perhaps on avoiding penalties for the pharmaceutical areas. [...] The universal 10% tariff on other items is likely to remain. This is a far cry from the kind of deal that was being negotiated under the president’s first term."
  • Even if the deal is a thin one, the UK being seen to be at the 'front of the queue' - coming just days after the announcement of a trade deal with India - will provide something of a credibility boost for the Starmer gov't  
  • Before its announcement, the deal has its critics with the centrist Liberal Democrats demanding a vote in the Commons on any deal. The main opposition centre-right Conservatives have said that they will scrutinise any deal, but as a pro-Brexit party, are unlikely to look to significantly hinder one of the 'benefits' of leaving the EU (an independent trade policy). 

Historical bullets

EQUITIES: FTSE Block trade

Apr-08 07:46

FTSE block trade, suggest seller.

  • Z M5 2k at 7785.00.

US TSY FLOWS: US Tnotes is through the Overnight high, USDJPY tests 147.00

Apr-08 07:42
  • The US Tnotes is now also through its overnight high, but initial resistance area is seen further out up to ~112.24+
  • The price action is helping the USDJPY through the 147.00 figure, this is well within Yesterday's big range of 144.82/148.18 (low/high).

BONDS: European futures are extending higher

Apr-08 07:36

Couple of Block trade in Gilt, suggested buyer:

  • G M5 1.22k at 92.21.
  • G M5 976 at 92.25.

The Italian BTP and French OAT futures are still leading to the upside in Europe.