OIL: US Crude Imports to Dangote Overtake Nigerian Barrels: Kpler
US crude imports overtake Nigerian barrels in Dangote's import mix as imports to the refinery surged to a record 590kb/d in July
- US crude made up 60% (370kb/d) of the total, while Nigerian grades, primarily Amenam, Bonny Light, and Escravos, accounted for 40% (220kb/d).
- WTI has been more competitively priced than certain domestic options while securing domestic crude remains an ongoing challenge.
- Dangote’s crude inventories rose 2.5mbbl month on month to 6.73mbbls in July, suggesting some import volume has been directed into storage.
- The refinery is currently operating at 420–450kb/d (65–70%) with expectation of 450-500kb/d in Q4 amid plans to ramp up throughput and gasoline output.
- Domestic gasoline production is estimated at approximately 100 kb/d. Kpler are neutral on Dangote's product exports after reaching record highs this month.
- Full capacity utilization remains unlikely before Q4 2026 due to persistent mechanical and operational constraints.
Source: Kpler
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Gilts Remains Present
- In the FI space, Bund futures traded lower Tuesday, extending Monday’s sell-off. Support at 129.77, the Jul 3 low, has been cleared. The clear break confirms a resumption of the recent bearish theme and opens 129.30 next, the May 22 low. On the upside, resistance around the the 50-day EMA, at 130.47, has recently been pierced but for now, remains intact. A clear break of it is required to highlight a possible reversal.
- A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also pierced 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg. This exposes 90.97, the 76.4% retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 92.51, the 20-day EMA.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Approaching The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
- RES 3: 5500.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5486.00 High May 20 and a key bull trigger
- RES 1: 5456.00 High Jun 11
- PRICE: 5447.00 @ 12:00 BST Jul 9
- SUP 1: 5281.00/5194.00 Low Jul 1 & 4 / Low Jun 23 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5182.00 Low May 2
- SUP 3: 5100.94 38.2% retracement of the Apr 7 - May 20 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30
Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading higher today as the contract extends the recovery that started Jun 23. This strengthens a bullish condition and exposes key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bull cycle that began Apr 7. A break would open the 5500 handle. On the downside key support has been defined at 5194.00, the Jun 23 low.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: David Miles on the costs of the shift away from long-dated gilts
OBR's David Miles on the costs of the structural shift away from long-dated gilts.- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
