EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls

While the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) suspended the weekly Commitments of Traders report due to the US gov shutdown - the reporting firms (FCMs, clearing members & foreign brokers) continued to submit the (required) daily reports during the 43 day shutdown.

• Following past shutdown precedent - the CFTC announced a delayed release schedule late Tuesday - a chronological release of data from October 1 through November 12 will see multiple publications over the next several weeks until the CFTC returns to a normal schedule -- in January of 2026!

+First catch-up publication on Wednesday

++COT publication returns to normal schedule

We have more updates from the Census Bureau on upcoming data releases:

• August Wholesale Sales And Inventories Nov 21 1000ET (originally due out Oct 9)
• September Advance Retail Sales Nov 25 0830ET (originally due out Oct 16)
• August Manufacturing Inventories And Sales Nov 25 1000ET (originally due out Oct 16)
• September Advance Durable Goods Nov 26 0830ET (originally due out Oct 29)
• This is in line with MNI's expectation that September retail sales would be out by late November.

President Donald Trump’s efforts to gain an edge in the 2026 midterms by redrawing Congressional maps in red states took another hit yesterday, with a federal court in Texas blocking a Republican map due to evidence it is "racially gerrymandered." 

• Texas Republicans are now looking to the Supreme Court to ensure the map, projected to net Republicans five House seats in 2026, is in place for the Congressional elections. The deadline for electoral candidates to file 2026 paperwork is December 8, giving the Supreme Court under 20 days to rescue the Texas map.
• The Texas decision is compounded by the Republican-controlled state legislature in Indiana resisting pressure from Trump to redraw a map to net three GOP seats. Meanwhile, Democrats have had considerable success in their counter efforts to redraw maps in blue states, with wins in California (+5 seats) and Utah (+1 seat). There is also the possibility of Democrats picking up three new seats in Virginia.
• House Majority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said in an interview that House Democrats will continue to pursue favourable maps, regardless of the Texas outcome: “We are moving full steam ahead. Republican extremists started this gerrymandering fight. We’re going to end it.”
• Marist released an update today showing Democrats with a 14-point lead on the generic Congressional ballot, with 57% of respondents citing concerns over prices. Marist noted: “This is the first time in more than three years that Democrats have had a notable advantage on the congressional generic ballot.”