EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls

 SPX: 5,492.5 (-1.2%); DJIA: 40,234 (-0.7%/-293pts); NDX: 19,200.1 (-1.8%).

US President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social: "This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s. I didn’t take over until January 20th. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers. Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden “Overhang.” This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. BE PATIENT!!!"

• The claim that the volatility seen in financial markets in recent weeks is due to an 'overhang' from the last presidency, rather than Trump's trade tariffs, may be seen as an indicator that the president is more inclined to maintain tariffs as is (or reintroduce 'reciprocal' tariffs once the 90 day exempting has expired) rather than work towards swift trade deals.
• In recent days there appears to have been progress, at least with some key trading partners, towards the finalisation of agreements that could see tariffs (at least 'reciprocal' if not the baseline 10%) lifted. See the US Daily Brief for more details. 

• Core PCE inflation was higher than expected in Q1 at 3.46% annualized (cons 3.1) after 2.64% in Q4.
• Our basic calculations had suggested a ~3.3% figure was possible considering scope for the February upward revision after portfolio management details in the PPI report earlier this month.
• Unrounded analyst estimates had averaged 0.07% M/M for March after the 0.365% M/M in Feb has a good chance of being revised up to the cusp of 0.4-0.5% M/M following a particularly large upward revision to portfolio management fees (which is likely due a correction either in March (next revision) or April (new data)).
• We don’t have long to wait, with the March PCE report released at 1000ET today.