EURGBP TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8694 High Apr 14
- RES 1: 0.8670 High Jul 02 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8664 @ 16:38 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Jul 7
- SUP 2: 0.8573/8520 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
- SUP 4: 0.8407 Low Jun 4
The trend condition in EURGBP is unchanged, it remains bullish. The recent consolidation appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. Note too that 0.8648, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. A resumption of gains and a breach of 0.8670, the July 2 high and bull trigger, would strengthen bullish conditions and open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 0.8573, the 20-day EMA.
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SECURITY: US Evacuation of Baghdad Embassy Supportive for Crude
The US embassy in Baghdad is readying for an evacuation amid rising regional security tensions, likely linked to concerns over failed nuclear talks with Iran, Reuters reported.
- Iran threatens to target US. bases if nuclear talks fail, heightening fears of military conflict, Reuters said.
- A military conflict would be bullish for oil prices as it would not only threaten Iraqi production, but also exports from the Persian Gulf, with Iran able to block the Straits of Hormuz.
- Around 20% of global oil supply passes through the Straits of Hormuz.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'25 10Y Ultra-Bond Sale
- -3,500 UXYU5 112-17, post time bid at 1331:49ET, DV01 $305,000.
- The contract trades 112-16 last (+14.5)
GBPUSD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3616 High Jun 5
- PRICE: 1.3544 @ 16:29 BST Jun 11
- SUP 1: 1.3466 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3335/3306 Low May 20 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
- SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
Trend signals in GBPUSD remain bullish and the latest pullback appears to be corrective. A fresh cycle high last week, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens 1.3681 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support at 1.3466, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of it would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3306.
