OPTIONS: Upside Theme Continues In Both Sonia And Euribor

RRP usage rebounds to $22.915B with 15 counterparties this afternoon from $19.416B Monday. Compares to $17.923B on Wednesday, Sep 3 - the lowest levels since early April 2021. This year's high usage of $460.731B occurred on June 30.

• RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4  
• RES 3: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 2: 1.3595 High Aug 14 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 1.3590 High Sep 9
• PRICE: 1.3539 @ 17:30 BST Sep 9
• SUP 1: 1.3463/3333 50-day EMA / Low Sep 3
• SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

GBPUSD is trading higher today as the pair extends the recovery from the Sep 3 low. The move higher has retraced the steep sell-off on Sep 2 and highlights a stronger bullish development. This also suggests the corrective cycle between Aug 14 - Sep 3 is over. Sights are on resistance at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high and a bull trigger. A break would strengthen a bullish condition. Initial support to watch is 1.3463, the 50-day EMA.        

• We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI ECB Preview, including MNI analysis plus analyst views on what to expect at this month's meeting.
• Please find the full report here: https://media.marketnews.com/ECB_Preview_Sep2025_45838e0072.pdf

• The ECB is fully expected to leave its three key rates on hold on Thursday, with its deposit rate at 2.00%.
• ECB President Lagarde is expected to continue to suggest policy is in a good place.
• A data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach is expected to be reiterated in a continuation of July’s “deliberatively uninformative” communication approach around future rate decisions.
• Lagarde’s characterisation of economic resilience and/or the extent to which uncertainty has been alleviated by the US-EU trade deal should help shape market reaction.
• Fresh economic projections aren’t expected to be material. 
• Recent resilience sees cuts no longer fully priced, with a cumulative 18bp of cuts seen out to mid-2026.
• We judge that the median analyst no longer looks for another cut although the bias is clearly still lower, with 7 of 25 looking for one more cut and 4 looking for two more.
• EUR/USD approaches the meeting after recent strength has seen it tilt back closer to 1.18, a level shortly after which drew unusually direct comments from ECB’s De Guindos back at the Sintra conference.