LOOK AHEAD: UPDATE: Thursday Data Calendar Adds Revelio & Regional Fed Data

Due to the ongoing US Govt shutdown, Trade Balance, Durables & Factory Goods Orders, JOLTS job openings has been suspended. That leaves Redbook Retail Sales, Fed speak and Tsy bill auction tomorrow.

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 11/04 Fed VC Bowman on bank supervision & policy, Santander conf
• 11/04 0855 Redbook Retail Sales
• 11/04 1130 US Tsy $95B 6W bill auction
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

• Softer-than-expected CPI data in Switzerland this morning has resulted in the Swiss Franc being the weakest currency across the G10 today. While currency markets have adjusted in sympathy to the data, it is worth highlighting the bar to an SNB move back into negative rates territory remains high in the short-term. Indeed, SNB's Tschudin said last week that it is ok if inflation moves below 0% for a "short time".
• EURCHF (+0.28%) held a significant medium-term support last week, and spot is now operating roughly 100 pips above the key 0.9206 level. A break back above 50-day EMA resistance at 0.9308 would be a bullish development, likely allowing the cross to re-establish the 0.93-0.94 range that was broadly in place between May/September.
• Goldman Sachs acknowledged the data has helped EURCHF continue its recovery over the past two weeks back closer to their 3-month target of 0.9300. An element of mean reversion was likely at play in that recovery, after a notable move lower through most of October that was mostly unattached from cyclical fundamentals in their view.
• For USDCHF (+0.30%), a collection of daily highs have been broken today, assisting the pair to two-month highs above 0.8075. Should the post-FOMC greenback recovery continue to gather momentum, the most obvious target for the move is 0.8171, the August 01 high.

• +5k 0NZ5 96.70/96.90 cs vs -5k SFIZ5 96.35/96.50 cs
• ppr pays 3.75 to Buy the 0NZ5 cs