STIR FUTURES: UPDATE: Large Nov'25 1M SOFR/Fed Funds Spread

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 148.54/65 76.4% of Mar 28 - Apr 22 bear leg / High May 12
• RES 1: 146.16 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 143.70 @ 16:15 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 143.45/46 Low May 8 / 21
• SUP 2: 142.36 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg  
• SUP 4: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger

USDJPY traded lower again Wednesday, extending the reversal that started May 12. The pullback signals the end of the corrective cycle since Apr 22 and marks a resumption of the downtrend. A continuation lower would expose 142.36, the May 6 low. Note that the 20-day EMA, at 145.11, has been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high. Initial firm resistance is 146.16, 50-day EMA.   

RRP usage rebounds to $162.082B this afternoon from $136.033B yesterday, total number of counterparties at 41. Usage had fallen to $54.772B last Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B.

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23    
• RES 3: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8541/8557 High May 2 / High Apr 28
• RES 1: 0.8456 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8441 @ 16:00 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 0.8394 Low May 16   
• SUP 2: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing  

The cross rallied to show briefly above the 50-day EMA as the EUR rallied across the board into the Wednesday close. A clear break and close above would conclude the recent bearish phase and shift attention to 0.8541 resistance, the May 2 high. To the downside, the 0.8400 handle has been breached in recent weeks, an extension below which would open 0.8359, a Fibonacci projection.