US DATA: Upcoming Data Guide: National Claims Data Off, But State-Level On

The weekly jobless claims report is postponed for a 2nd consecutive week due to the federal government shutdown, while wholesale trade data will also be postponed. 

• However we will get some data. Indeed for jobless claims, individual state-by-state estimates should trickle in, which should allow for some rough estimates of the nation-wide figure to emerge from various analysts starting later Thursday and overnight. MNI will provide an estimate for initial (week of Oct 4) and continuing (week of Sep 27) claims by Friday morning. For last week's release, MNI estimated 223-225k initial claims (week of Sep 27) and 1,916k continuing (Sep 20 week).
• We will get the Dallas Fed's weekly economic index at around 1130ET (which helpfully compiles multiple weekly private sector indicators, and uses their own imputed estimate of jobless claims data so subject to revision later).
• Also today, we are tentatively expecting to get the NY Fed's latest Survey of Market Expectations, whose publication schedule lines up with the FOMC minutes (usually comes out a day later). This is most closely watched for forming consensus Fed balance sheet/QT expectations (it combines the former Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Market Participants) but also has several questions devoted to macro expectations.
• Arguably Friday's UMichigan preliminary October consumer sentiment survey could prove to be the week's most important single data release.
• A note on Friday's monthly Treasury budget report: this release date is always uncertain. Treasury releases this report on the 8th business day of the month, but this edition is the fiscal year-end report which they usually take a little more time to compile. In any event there is little suspense as the CBO estimate came out Wednesday: full-year FY2025 (Oct-Sep) deficit $1.809T - $8B smaller than the 2024 deficit of $1.817T.