GOLD: Up 1% On Dovish Powell Reaction; Trend Broadly Sideways Since Jun
Aug-22 16:08
The dovish reaction to Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks helps spot gold rise 1% on the session to $3,370/oz. Initial resistance at $3,409 remains untested for now, clearance of which would expose the June 16 high at $3,451
- A technical bull cycle in Gold remains intact, but the trend has been broadly sideways since the start of June, with spot hovering between $3,250 and $3,450.
- A pullback in trade policy uncertainty, alongside some likely profit taking following an impressive 2.5-year rally, have limited upside in Gold in recent months.
- However, there remain several medium-term sources of demand for gold, including central bank reserve diversification and investor demand stemming from (i) Fed independence concerns, (ii) broader global fiscal worries (with associated fears that this may lead to future monetisation of government debt), and (iii) residual haven demand from Russia-Ukraine war uncertainty.
- A resumption of the Fed's easing cycle may also lend a hand to gold in the coming months, but it’s worth remembering that the correlation between Bullion and 5-year TIPS rates has broken down since 2022.
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TARIFFS: US And EU Closing In On 15% Tariff Deal - FT
Jul-23 16:08
The Financial Times reports that the United States and European Union are closing in on a deal that would impose 15% tariffs on European imports, potentially heading off a threat issued by President Donald Trump earlier this month to hit the EU with a 30% tariff rate on August 1.
- FT notes: "Both sides would waive tariffs on some products, including aircraft, spirits and medical devices... [sources] said they understood the 15 per cent minimum tariff would include those existing duties, so Brussels views the deal as cementing the status quo. Tariffs on cars, which are currently 27.5 per cent, would therefore fall to 15 per cent."
- FT adds: "The bloc will continue to prepare a possible €93bn package of retaliatory tariffs, set at up to 30 per cent, in case they cannot agree a deal by August 1, the people said. A US official said the situation was fluid and subject to change."
- Bloomberg reported earlier that, absent a trade deal by August 1, the EU would "quickly hit the US with 30% tariffs on some €100 billion ($117 billion) worth of goods." The first wave of countermeasures would combine "an already approved list of tariffs on €21 billion of US goods and a previously proposed list on an additional €72 billion of American products into one package".
- Trump said on Truth Social earlier: "I WILL ONLY LOWER TARIFFS IF A COUNTRY AGREES TO OPEN ITS MARKET. IF NOT, MUCH HIGHER TARIFFS!"
US TSYS: Extending Lows on US/EU Trade Chatter
Jul-23 16:04
- Bit of classic risk-on at midday, Treasuries are extending lows, stocks climbing to new highs after Financial Times article posits the US & EU "close in on 15% tariff deal".
- Tsy Sep'25 10Y contract trades -12.5 at 111-00.5 (low) - nearing initial technical support at 110-30/08.5 (50-day EMA / Low Jul 14 & 16).
- Curves still mixed: 2s10s +0.353 at 51.204, 5s30s -0.618 at 102.429.
- Cross asset: Bbg US$ index retreats: BBDXY -1.55 at 1194.25; SPX eminis new high of 6385.0; gold down 41.58 at 3390.06.
EGBS: EGBs Slip On FT Report That EU-US Closing In On 15% Tariff Deal
Jul-23 16:01
- A swift sell-off in EGBs on the back of that FT report, 2Y German yields 3bp higher for the same increase on the day.
- RXA slides ~35 ticks to a low of 130.17, but still some way off testing support at 129.73 (Jul 21 low).
