GBPUSD TECHS: Unwinding An Overbought Trend Condition
- RES 4: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22
- RES 3: 1.3500 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3434 High Sep 26 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3424 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3313 @ 15:30 BST Apr 25
- SUP 1: 1.3234 Low Apr 23
- SUP 2: 1.3136 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3041/2952 Low Apr 14 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.2807 Low Apr 10
The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and the latest pullback appears corrective. A deeper retracement would allow a short-term overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 1.3114, the 20-day EMA. The pair has recently breached 1.3207, the Apr 3 high and a bull trigger, resuming the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3434, the Sep 26 ‘24 high.
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TARIFFS: EU Expects 20% Tariffs Next Week - FT
The Financial Times reports that EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic expects US President Donald Trump to hit the European Union with tariffs "of about 20 per cent" next week, when he imposes his so-called 'Liberation Day' reciprocal tariffs.
- Sefcovic told officials that Washington’s final plan, "was still unclear but that tariffs would apply equally to all 27 member states after meeting senior administration figures on Tuesday." FT adds that, according to sources, "The US gave no indication there would be any exemptions or exceptions."
- Sefcovic's assessment came after meetings in Washington D.C. this week with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hasset, during which, according to MNI, "he offered to cut tariffs on U.S. cars to zero and to build more pharmaceutical factories in the U.S." See: MNI: EU's Sefcovic Offers Trade Compromises To Trump- Official
- FT notes: "Brussels has begun to prepare a second tranche of retaliatory tariffs should Trump confirm additional duties next week. The EU has already drawn up a €26bn package after the US hit all steel and aluminium that will apply from April 12."
TARIFFS: EU Official Sefčovič Expects Trump Tariff of ~20%
- "TOP EU OFFICIAL EXPECTS TRUMP TARIFF OF ABOUT 20% - FT"
- "TOP EU OFFICIAL MAROŠ ŠEFČOVIČ SHARED ASSESSMENT AFTER MEETINGS IN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK - FT" (Reuters)
- From the FT article:
- "The EU’s top trade negotiator expects Donald Trump to hit the bloc with tariffs of about 20 per cent next week as the US president takes aggressive steps to cut trade deficits."
- "Šefčovič warned American officials that a tariff of 20 per cent on imports from the EU would be “devastating” for the bloc, according to the first official briefed on the talks."
- In an MNI exclusive earlier today, we highlighted that the European Union has offered to cut tariffs on U.S. cars to zero and to build more pharmaceutical factories in the U.S. as it seeks to head off tariffs next week, an EU trade source told MNI on Wednesday.
- "The dialogue is still going. The door is not closed," the official said.
US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: ON RRP Takeup Hits 2025 Highs With Quarter-End Ahead
Takeup of the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility picked up the most in a week Wednesday, by $26.6B, to the highest level this year so far of $241.4B.
- Takeup of ON RRP is likely to pick up even more sharply at the end of this week and early next, amid the usual quarter-end dynamics.
