GOLD TECHS: Unwinding An Overbought Condition
- RES 4: $4600.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $4578.3 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing
- RES 2: $4549.9 - High Dec 26 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $4430.8 - Low Dec 23
- PRICE: $4325.3 @ 07:10 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: $4274.7 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $4183.5 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $4109.7 - Low Nov 25
- SUP 4: $3998.1 - Low Nov 18
The trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and a sharp sell-off this week appears corrective - for now. The trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. First support at $4324.8, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would expose the 50-day EMA at $4183.5. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open $4578.3, a Fibonacci projection.
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BTP TECHS: (Z5) Trend Signals Remain Bullish
- RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.70/94 High Nov 13 / High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.37 @ Close Nov 28
- SUP 1: 120.48 Low Nov 20 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 120.15 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 119.73 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25
The trend set-up in BTP futures is bullish. A strong rally last week reinforces a bull theme. Note that the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation higher would expose the bull trigger at 121.94, the Oct 17 and 22 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 120.48, the Nov 20 low. A clear breach of this level would resume the recent bear leg.
RATINGS: Affirmations On Friday
Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
- S&P affirmed Latvia at A; Outlook Stable
- S&P affirmed Lithuania at A; Outlook Stable
- Morningstar DBRS confirmed Germany at AAA, Stable Trend
- Morningstar DBRS confirmed} Spain at A (high), Stable Trend
EURJPY TECHS: Bull Flag
- RES 4: 183.48 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
- RES 3: 184.34 2.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 2: 183.07 1.764 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 182.01 High Nov 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 180.46 @ 07:04 GMT Dec 1
- SUP 1: 179.73 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 178.98/177.59 Low Nov 14 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 175.71 Low Nov 5
- SUP 4: 175.35 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact and the cross is holding on to its latest gains. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Recent fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the trend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 183.48, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support lies at 179.73, the 20-day EMA.
