GOLD TECHS: Unwinding An Overbought Condition

Apr-23 13:54
  • RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance 
  • RES 3: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
  • RES 2: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
  • RES 1: $3500.1 - High Apr 22        
  • PRICE: $3277.4 @ 14:53 BST Apr 23 
  • SUP 1: $3230.0 - Low Apr 16  
  • SUP 2: $3184.2 - 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: $3167.8 - High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level 
  • SUP 4: $3047.0 - 50-day EMA 

The trend needle in Gold continues to point north and this week’s fresh cycle high reinforces bullish conditions. The latest move down - a correction - is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3184.2, the 20-day EMA.

Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: Post-Flash PMI React

Mar-24 13:53
  • Treasury futures extend lows after S&P Flash PMI services and composite data comes out higher then expected while manufacturing declines.
  • The Jun'25 10Y currently trades 110-21 (-14) vs. 110-20 low -- sitting on initial technical support, next level at 110-12+ Low Mar 6 & 13. Resistance above at 111-25 (Mar 11 high), support below at 110-12.5/110-00 (Low Mar 6 & 13 / High Feb 7).
  • Tsy 10Y yield climbs to 4.3153% high, curves still mixed: 2s10s +.472 at 29.864, 5s30s -1.851 at 56.572.

BONDS: MNI Europe Pi: Short Lean Extends Across Contracts

Mar-24 13:51

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  • Since the quarterly rolls at the turn of Feb/Mar, European bond futures contracts have leaned increasingly toward structural shorts.
  • 5 of 6 Eurex contracts tracked by MNI Pi are in either short or very short territory, with BTP the exception.
  • BTP, as well as Gilts, appear to be drifting toward the short side.  
  • Last week saw a combination of short covering and long-setting.

 

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USD: USDJPY is testing 150.00 post US PMIs

Mar-24 13:49
  • USDJPY makes an attempt at 150.00, while the US Mfg PMI missed expectations, Services and Composite saw strong beat.
  • Immediate resistance is still at 150.15/150.18.