HUNGARY: Unemploment Rate Edges Higher to 4.4% in April
May-23 06:52
- Hungary’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in April from 4.3% in March, according to the Central Statistical Office. As per an analyst survey, no change was expected. The number of unemployed rose to 214.9k from 211.2k in March.
- Speaking in a weekly radio interview, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Hungarians' heating bills would quadruple and electricity bills double if the Ukrainians' plan to prevent EU member states from buying Russian energy pans out. Orban said it would cost Hungary an additional HUF 800bln a year if the country had to replace its energy from Russia with other sources.
- No other data releases are scheduled for today. Looking ahead to next week, the NBH rate decision takes focus on Tuesday, where no change the 6.50% base rate is expected.
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USD: Risk On tone supports the AUD and NZD
Apr-23 06:49
- While Trump provided some relief for the Dollar following his comment on Fed Chair Powell and potential trade talks with China, the Dollar is mostly mixed against G10s.
- The AUD and the Kiwi are the best early performer, Risk On tone led, up 0.74% and 0.39% respectively at present.
- On the flip side of the coin, the Swissy and the EUR are the early worst performer, albeit by 0.43% and 0.33% respectively.
- Regardless of some of the pullbacks for the Greenback, the bigger picture is that the Dollar is deep in the red against all G10, looking at the past 1 Month, 3 Months or even YTD, since Market Participants have looked for safer ground.
- AUDUSD sees Yesterday's print of 0.6439 as the immediate resistance, this was also its best print since December.
STIR: Modest Hawkish Moves In BoE Pricing, 90bp Cuts Still Seen Through Dec
Apr-23 06:46
Modest hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs this morning after U.S. President Trump pushed back against the idea that he is looking to fire Fed Chair Powell.
- Market is also accounting for more sanguine language on trade with China from the Trump administration (including comments from Trump & Bessent).
- BoE-dated OIS little changed to 2bp less dovish across ’25 contracts, showing 25.5bp of cuts for next month, 37bp through June, 57bp through August and 90bp through year-end.
- SONIA futures flat to -5.0.
- We have highlighted the potential for flattening of the gilt curve at the open following the DMO’s remit revisions (details in previous bullets), we will watch for any feed through into GBP STIRs.
- Flash PMIs headline the UK data calendar today, with BoE speak due from Pill (11:30 BST), Bailey (18:15 BST) & Breeden (19:00 BST) due throughout the day.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-25 | 4.205 | -25.4 |
Jun-25 | 4.092 | -36.8 |
Aug-25 | 3.887 | -57.2 |
Sep-25 | 3.764 | -69.5 |
Nov-25 | 3.614 | -84.5 |
Dec-25 | 3.562 | -89.7 |
UK DMO UPDATE: Long gilt reductions unexpected
Apr-23 06:44
- We hadn't seen anyone expecting a reduction in long issuance to be announced this morning.
- A reduction to GBP29.8bln from GBP40.2bln is significant.
- That means only 74% of the long issuance previously announced will still take place.
- That reduces longs as a proportion of issuance to 10.0% from 13.4%.
- With the syndication bucket reduced in size there is scope to increase this back up if demand for longs increases (and there is of course extra flexibility with the programmatic tenders).
- But this is a significant shift in issuance strategy. The most we had seen was new issuance would be added to shorts / mediums - not reduced for longs.
