US STOCKS: Under Pressure, DJIA at 4-Week Lows, Data, Expiration Triggers
Feb-21 17:19
- Stocks remain weak ahead midday Friday, with SPX Eminis and Nasdaq at last week Thursday levels while the DJIA has retreated to 4 week lows. Currently, the DJIA trades down 392.64 points (-0.89%) at 43785.03, S&P E-Minis down 44 points (-0.72%) at 6092.75, Nasdaq down 181 points (-0.9%) at 19782.53.
- Stocks reversed modest early gains, extended session lows after this morning's weaker than expected economic data with S&P flash Services PMI below 50 as "input cost pressures meanwhile spiked higher, notably in manufacturing as suppliers passed on tariff-related price hikes and wage pressures persisted."
- Existing home sales were softer than expected while the final University of Michigan consumer survey for February showed a worrying rise in long-term inflation expectations. Trading desks also cited today's call weighted option expiration that has leaned toward bearish price action in the week following. President Trump reiterating a 25% tariff on cars starting April 2 didn't help either.
- Consumer Discretionary and Industrials underperformed in the first half, autos and travel elated stocks weighing on the Consumer sector: Airbnb -3.63%, Tesla -3.21%, Norwegian Cruise Line -2.38%. Shipping related stocks weighed on the Industrial sector: Old Dominion Freight Line -8.19%, Builders FirstSource -6.57%, FedEx Corp -6.12%.
- On the positive side, Consumer Staples and Utilities outperformed in the first half, food & beverage shares leading gainers: Hershey +3.98%, Monster Beverage Corp +3.91%, Kenvue Inc +3.51%. Consolidated Edison +2.85%, American Water Works +2.18%, CMS Energy +1.43% led gainers in the Utility sector.
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STIR: BLOCK: Red March'26 SOFR Sale
Jan-22 17:18
- -11,000 SFRH6 96.005 (-0.005) at 1212:35ET, the Red Mar'25 contract trades down to 96.00 last.
US STOCKS: Chip Stocks, Media & Entertainment Buoy Eminis Near New Highs
Jan-22 17:09
- Stocks are gaining early Wednesday, support for semiconductor stocks helping SPX Eminis climb back near early December all-time highs (6178.75).
- Currently, the DJIA trades up 115.25 points (0.26%) at 44143.15, S&P E-Minis up 50.25 points (0.83%) at 6134.5, Nasdaq up 303.7 points (1.5%) at 20060.89.
- Information Technology and Communication Services sectors outperformed in early trade, chip stocks supporting the former as noted: Monolithic Power +8.48%, Lam Research +4.07%, Applied Materials +3.62% while Nvidia gained 3.55%.
- Interactive media and entertainment stocks led gainers in the Communication Services sector: Netflix rallying over 11% in the first half as subscriptions soar, Meta +2.57%, Warner Bros +1.54%.
- On the flipside, Utilities and Real Estate sectors underperformed in the first half, gas and multi-energy providers weighing on the former: Edison International -3.63%, Dominion Energy -3.45%, Ameren -3.03% while PG&E declined 3.01%.
- Investment trusts, particularly health care and residential REITs weighed on the Real Estate sector: Ventas -2.59%, Healthpeak Properties -2.27%, and Equity Residential -2.05%.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Remains Below The 50-Day EMA
Jan-22 17:02
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 109-31 High Dec 18
- RES 2: 109-16+ 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 109-04/109-06 High Jan 21 / High Dec 31
- PRICE: 108-17+ @ 16:52 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 108-00/107-06 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The medium-term trend condition in Treasury futures remains bearish and the recovery that started Jan 13, appears to be a correction. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 108-17+. This exposes 109-06, the Dec 31 high, and 109-16+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen a bullish theme. The bear trigger is unchanged at 107-06, the Jan 13 low.
