SWITZERLAND DATA: Unchanged SNB Market Pricing Warranted Looking At CPI Details
Looking at the details of Swiss September CPI, there were multiple moving parts in the data. Having said that, the big picture remains that inflation remains within the SNB target, keeping market expectations for further meetings roughly unchanged at around 10bps of easing priced through June 2026.
- Contributions of services excl. rents rose for the fourth consecutive month in September (see dark blue bars in chart below).
- However, the September increase was driven by hotels and package holidays, which added 0.15pp in contribution - meaning that without these (often volatile) categories, services excl. rents (which the SNB has previously seemed to look at when judging underlying inflationary pressures) look a bit softer than in August.
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STIR: Just 9bps of BOE Cuts Priced Through Year-end
BOE-dated OIS continue to price just ~4bps of easing through November, with 9bps of cuts priced through year-end. We think the November meeting is much more “live” than current market pricing implies, with focus on next week’s labour market and inflation data double header.
- Today’s domestic calendar is light. However, tomorrow will see Bailey, Lombardelli, Taylor & Greene appear in front of the Treasury Select Committee (alongside separate comments from Deputy Governor Breeden at a money and payments conference).
- SONIA futures are flat to -2.5 ticks through the blues, with the strip bear steepening alongside the Gilt curve (more on Gilts to follow shortly).
| Meeting Date | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Sep-25 | 3.974 | 0.7 |
| Nov-25 | 3.928 | -3.9 |
| Dec-25 | 3.879 | -8.7 |
| Feb-26 | 3.785 | -18.1 |
| Apr-26 | 3.751 | -21.6 |
| Jun-26 | 3.686 | -28.1 |
| Jul-26 | 3.664 | -30.2 |
| Sep-26 | 3.629 | -33.7 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P |
SILVER TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: $40.323 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $42.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 1: $40.850 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $40.688 @ 07:58 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: $38.585 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $37.661 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support
- SUP 4: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the metal traded sharply higher Monday. Resistance at $35.930, the Jul 23 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on $41.064 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is $38.585, the 20-day EMA.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 90.03/90.19 range.
