NORGES BANK: Unchanged Policy Rate; Unchanged Guidance
Unchanged key guidance: " The Committee's assessment is that no new information has come in that indicates a material change to the outlook for the Norwegian economy since the monetary policy meeting in September. The outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently envisaged, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of the coming year. "
Other highlights from the statement:
- "The Committee judges that a restrictive monetary policy is still needed. Inflation is still too high. "
- September rate path is still intact: " The policy rate forecast presented in September was consistent with one rate cut per year in the coming three years. "
- Noting the small uptick in registered unemployment in October, but not giving much attention to the fact September inflation was lower than expected: "Inflation is still above target, and underlying inflation has been close to 3 percent for some time. At the same time, unemployment has increased somewhat, and capacity utilisation in the economy has declined to a normal level. "
- Familiar two way risk assessment at the end of the statement: "If the outlook indicates that inflation will remain elevated for longer than projected, a higher policy rate than envisaged in September may be required. If the outlook indicates that inflation will return to target faster than projected or labour market conditions weaken more than expected, the policy rate may be lowered faster."
Link to statement here: https://www.norges-bank.no/en/news-events/news/Press-releases/2025/2025-11-06-rate/
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GILT AUCTION RESULTS: 0.125% Jan-28 Gilt Tender Result
| 0.125% Jan-28 Gilt | Previous | |
| Amount | GBP1.25bln | GBP2.00bln |
| Avg yield | 3.783% | 3.768% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.84x | 3.52x |
| Tail | 0.4bp | 0.7bp |
| Avg price | 91.973 | 90.698 |
| Low price | 91.965 | 90.682 |
| Pre-auction mid | 91.958 | 90.684 |
| Previous date | 15-May-25 |
COMMODITIES: Fresh Cycle Highs in Gold Reinforces Current Conditions
WTI futures remain in a bear-mode condition and gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a move through key support and the bear trigger at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and paves the way for an extension towards $57.50, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and Monday’s fresh cycle high, reinforces current conditions. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Furthermore, momentum studies highlight a condition known as momentum drag - where momentum studies remain in overbought territory and move sideways - a bullish signal. Sights are on $3987.3 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at $3753.2, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $0.11 or -0.18% at $61.6
- Natural Gas up $0.04 or +1.04% at $3.394
- Gold spot down $7.78 or -0.2% at $3951.39
- Copper up $2.4 or +0.48% at $506.05
- Silver down $0.3 or -0.61% at $48.186
- Platinum down $10.18 or -0.63% at $1613.01
EQUITIES: Bullish Theme in E-Mini S&P Intact, Sights on $6812.29 Proj. Level
Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bull-mode condition. Last week’s gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at 5525.00, the Aug 22 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The impulsive climb opens the 5700.00 handle next, with potential for a test of 5727.18 further out, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 5525.00, Aug 22 high. A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6812.29, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 6694.17. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 6575.48.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 6.12 pts or +0.01% at 47950.88 and the TOPIX ended 1.85 pts higher or +0.06% at 3227.91.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 31.66 pts or -0.13% at 24350.3, FTSE 100 higher by 9.68 pts or +0.1% at 9488.7, CAC 40 down 4.88 pts or -0.06% at 7966.9 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 4.83 pts or -0.09% at 5623.89.
- Dow Jones mini down 102 pts or -0.22% at 46856, S&P 500 mini down 8.5 pts or -0.13% at 6780.5, NASDAQ mini down 26.25 pts or -0.1% at 25159.
