US DATA: U.Mich Inflation Expectations Seem To Be Affected By Weight Change

The Swedish labour market continues to stabilise, according to latest data from the Public Employment Service (PES). However, there are not yet clear signs of a cyclical recovery, with tariff/uncertainty-related downside growth risks limiting appetite for hiring.

• The PES unemployment claims rate was 7.0% for the sixth consecutive month in April.
• Meanwhile the 3mma of redundancy notices pulled back to 4,690 (vs 4,850 in March), the lowest level since June 2023.
• Vacancy level still remain fairly subdued though. Although new openings ticked up to 86.4k in April (vs 85.2k prior), they remain comfortably down on a Y/Y basis (-18% Y/Y vs -7% in March, -21% in February and -22% in January).
• The April LFS unemployment data is due on May 23, while the May Economic Tendency Indicator (which contains useful information on business hiring plans) is due on May 27. The Riksbank will be closely watching both datapoints to determine if rates need to be cut as soon as June.

• The US 10yr Tnotes has found support in Futures, resistance at the 4.50% level, printed at 4.4966% high so for today.
• We have just mentioned the next Technical support in Gilt at 90.92 (76.4% retrace of the Apr/May range).

But in Yield term for the 10yr, next upside targets are at:

• 4.757% = 90.67 (11th April high).
• 4.809% = 90.20 (March high, and highest since January).

• EUR/USD: $1.1000(E1.0bln), $1.1090-00(E3.6bln), $1.1385-90(E1.2bln), $1.1410(E1.0bln)
• USD/JPY: Y140.00($3.4bln), Y145.00($2.1bln), Y146.95-05($1.3bln)
• GBP/USD: $1.3500(Gbp658mln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6475(A$1.3bln)
• NZD/USD: $0.5880(N$1.0bln)
• USD/CNY: Cny7.3000($883mln)