SECURITY: Ukrainian And US National Security Teams To Meet In "Near Future"
Mar-05 16:54
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s top aide, Andriy Yermak, has stated in a message on X that he, “discussed the next steps towards a just and lasting peace” in a call with US President Donald Trump's National Security Advisor Mike Waltz.
- Yermak said: "We also exchanged views on security issues and the alignment of positions within the framework of bilateral relations between Ukraine and the United States. We have scheduled a meeting for our teams in the near future to continue this important work."
- Comes after Waltz offered a cautiously positive assessment of the US-Ukrainian relationship in a short interview with C-Span this morning. Waltz said the US is "taking a step back and pausing and reviewing all aspects of the [US-Ukraine] relationship" but noted he has been having "good talks" with his Ukrainian counterpart for the location "for the next round of negotiations..."
- Waltz: "So just in the past 24 hours, since the public statement from Zelenskyy and the subsequent conversations... I think we're going to see movement in very short order."
- Trump noted in his address to Congress yesterday that he “appreciated” an “important letter” from Zelenskyy. His comments appeared to suggest he may be open to re-engaging with Ukraine on the mineral sharing agreement that collapsed in the Oval Office spat last Friday.
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US TSYS/SUPPLY: Treasury Financing Estimates To Assume QT Continues (1/2)
Feb-03 16:52
Our full preview of this week's quarterly Refunding went out on Friday (PDF here). While the main Refunding announcement is not until Wednesday at 0830ET, Monday’s Financing Requirements release, at 1500ET, could provide some key insights into how Treasury forecasts fiscal dynamics through the middle of calendar year 2025.
- The first caveat is that the estimates will likely have to be taken seriously but not literally. Treasury usually makes the assumption that, when applicable, the debt limit (that it is currently constrained by) will be lifted by Congress.
- It also is likely to assume that Fed QT continues to run as usual (around $75B per quarter since the middle of 2024).
- Those assumptions have large implications for the net borrowing requirements and financing needs.
- MNI is very loosely penciling in the following for Monday’s release, and it would probably require a large deviation from these to have a market impact.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Feb04 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Feb-03 16:40
- EUR/USD: $1.0250(E873mln), $1.0280(E910mln), $1.0300(E1.2bln), $1.0320(E1.0bln), $1.0375(E1.0bln), $1.0395-05(E1.4bln), $1.0425-35(E2.4bln)
- USD/JPY: Y152.00($500mln), Y154.00($663mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6275(A$1.6bln), $0.6335-50(A$896mln), $0.6420(A$1.1bln), $0.6595-00(A$2.5bln)
STIR: BLOCK: June'25 SOFR Put Fly
Feb-03 16:38
- 5,000 SFRM5 95.56/95.68/95.81 put flys, 4.75 ref 95.89 at 1123:56ET
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