OIL: Ukraine’s Energy Strikes on Russia Likely to Evolve

A new survey from CBS News/YouGov has found, “For many Americans, across party lines, concern over the government shutdown means concern about its potential impact on the economy, among other things. Therefore, many don't think either party's position is worth having a shutdown over. Given that, no one is looking especially good politically at the moment. President Trump, congressional Democrats, and Republicans are all net negative on their handling of the shutdown thus far.”

• CBS notes, “Relatively few Americans say the Democrats' or Republicans' positions are worth a shutdown. As it is still fairly recent, many aren't sure yet… There's plenty of that blame to go around. Republicans and the president get relatively more than congressional Democrats, but taken together with Americans who blame both equally, a majority of the country holds all of them responsible.”
• Punchbowl News' Canvass survey found that "More than half of top Capitol Hill staffers (58%)” say the GOP is to blame for the shutdown.

Figure 1: % Blame the most for the government shutdown

Source: CBS News/YouGov

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8691 @ 16:28 BST Oct 6
• SUP 1: 0.8672/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

Short-term weakness in EURGBP appears corrective and the trend condition remains bullish. The recovery that started mid-August paves the way for an extension towards the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would instead reinstate a recent bearish threat. First support is 0.8672, the 50-day EMA. 

Latest German bond futures positioning trends, from our latest Europe Pi:

• German contracts' structural positioning leans short/mixed.
• Bobl and Buxl (both structurally flat) and Bund (short) have ticked away from the recent shortest positioning seen since early in 2025.
• That leaves Schatz as an exception, with "very short" positioning only deepening in the latest weeks.
• Last week's trade was indicative of long-setting and short cover across contracts.