US: UKRAINE: Washington Pushes Broader Mineral Deal With Kyiv - Bloomberg
Mar-27 16:26
Bloomberg News reports that the US is, “pushing to control all major future infrastructure and mineral investments in Ukraine, potentially gaining a veto over any role for Kyiv’s other allies and undermining its bid for European Union membership.”
- The report notes: “If accepted, the partnership agreement would bestow enormous power on the US to control investments into Ukraine in projects including roads and railways, ports, mines, oil and gas and extraction of critical minerals.”
- A person familiar with talks told Bloomberg: “Discussions are continuing between the two sides and the final draft may contain revisions to the terms. Ukraine will likely respond to the US document with its own amendments this week.”
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed this week that a revised mineral deal goes well beyond an initial framework accord hammered out last month, per the FT.
- Zelenskyy said: “Previously, we had a framework agreement, followed by the development of a full agreement. Now, the American side has proposed a grand agreement right away.”
- Zelenskyy said a short time ago after a summit of leaders backing Ukraine in Paris, “there is a strong reaffirmation that sanctions against Russia must not be lifted as long as the aggression continues. And we will continue working on security guarantees for Ukraine.”
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Issuance Update, State St, Citigroup on Tap
Feb-25 16:25
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 02/25 $500M Emerson Electric WNG 10Y +95a
- 02/25 $Benchmark State Street Corp 3Y +65a, 5Y +75a, 11NC10 +100a
- 02/25 $Benchmark Citigroup 4NC3 +95a, 4NC3 SOFR, 31NC30 +125a
- 02/25 $Benchmark Dow Chemical 10Y +130a, 30Y +165a
- 02/25 $Benchmark Southern Co 30NC10 6.75%a
- 02/25 $Benchmark Caterpillar 3Y +55a, 3Y SOFR
- 02/25 $Benchmark KeyCorp 6NC5 +120a
- 02/25 $Benchmark Ameriprise 10Y +110a
- 02/25 $Benchmark Kenya 11Y investor calls
STIR: ERZ5 Faces Strong Resistance At 98.055
Feb-25 16:23
ERZ5 has faced strong resistance at 98.055 today, limiting the spillover from this afternoon’s rally in SOFR futures following the weaker-than-expected US consumer confidence data.
- The strip more broadly trades flat to +2.5 ticks through the blues. Volumes have been highest in the M5 and Z5 contracts for the third consecutive session. Sizeable dovish flow has also been seen in these contracts today.
- The M5/M6 spread has flattened 1.5 ticks to -16.0, its lowest since October.
- ECB-dated OIS are up to 3.5bps more dovish through year-end on the session, with 83bps of cuts now priced through December.
- Executive Board member Schnabel cemented herself as one of the most hawkish Governing Council policymakers this afternoon, arguing that the subdued Eurozone growth outlook “cannot and should not be taken as evidence that policy is restrictive”.
- Tomorrow’s regional calendar is relatively light, keeping focus on Thursday/Friday data releases (headlined by flash inflation data from the four major member states).
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.421 | -24.5 |
| Apr-25 | 2.252 | -41.4 |
| Jun-25 | 2.064 | -60.2 |
| Jul-25 | 1.997 | -66.9 |
| Sep-25 | 1.908 | -75.8 |
| Oct-25 | 1.881 | -78.5 |
| Dec-25 | 1.835 | -83.2 |
| Feb-26 | 1.828 | -83.8 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
US DATA: Stronger Richmond Fed Manufacturing Offset By Expectations Drop
Feb-25 16:12
The Richmond Fed's regional manufacturing survey bucked the softening trend seen elsewhere, with the headline index picking up for the 3rd consecutive month to positive 6, vs -4 prior. But expectations fell back sharply.
- That was the first positive reading since October 2023 and the highest outright since April 2022. Shipments jumped to 12 from -9, with new orders up to 0 from -4 and employment to 9 from 3.
- But in sharp contrast to stronger current conditions, we note that expectations for future local business conditions collapsed to a 5-month low 2 from 32 prior, with new orders, backlogs, and capex expectations all moving lower.
- Expected and current prices paid/received mostly ticked higher but weren't as noteworthy as jumps in other regional Fed surveys.
- It seems as though post-election expectations were too optimistic with current conditions potentially having been depressed by hurricane activity in the region in the fall.
- Overall it's hard to read the signals for early 2025 activity but expectations are still elevated versus the last couple of years even after the drop, and it does appear that there will be at least some pickup vs very weak conditions in late 2024.
