EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Ukraine Violating Ceasefire; Trump 30-Day Plan Gains Support
Russia: Ukraine Violating Ceasefire; Trump 30-Day Plan Gains Support
(from our Political Risk Team)
Russian state media reporting comments from the Defence Ministry claiming that Ukraine has repeatedly violated the three-day ceasefire, while Russia abides by the truce. Russia claims that Ukraine has violated the ceasefire 5,026 times so far, with Ukrainian troops attempting 'to violate the border in Russia's Kursk and Belgorod regions'. The ceasefire has only been announced by Russia, and is in place for three days from 9-11 May. Given that Ukraine and other nations have not recognised Russia's ceasefire, it was never likely to emerge as a success.
On 8 May, US President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post : https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114474136794655068that he advocates a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, saying that "If the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions." In a further change in tone from previous efforts that only included the US and Russia, Trump wrote that "As President, I will stay committed to securing Peace between Russia and Ukraine, together with the Europeans, and a Lasting Peace it will be!". The inclusion of 'the Europeans' marks a first, and has seen leaders including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly back the Trump ceasefire.
Zelenskyy wrote on X "Ukraine is ready for a full ceasefire starting right now, from this very moment - a 30-day silence. A ceasefire, lasting and reliable, will be a real indicator of movement toward peace."
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US: SOFR FIX - 09/04/25
SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME
- 1M 4.32092 0.02911
- 3M 4.22965 0.01943
- 6M 4.05294 0.01766
- 12M 3.80474 0.03121
BOE: VIEW CHANGE: JP Morgan add a September cut; 3.25% terminal by Feb26
- JP Morgan already expected a 25bp cut in May and "continue to expect a pause in June, but will revisit this judgement after the data covering that period roll in" citing a larger impact from employers NICs on inflation than on employment.
- "If our growth forecast proves to be correct [revised down by 0.6% over the next 5 quarters] we would then expect the BoE to ease more quickly in 2H25." JPM now looks for sequential cuts between August and November (the September cut is additional) to 3.50% by year-end.
- "We have left in the cut for next February, which would mean a new lower terminal rate of 3.25%" down from 3.50% previously.
BONDS: Tnotes/Bund spread extends its wideningh bias
- Tnotes/Bund spread is slowly clearing the 175.00bps level, edging towards 10bps wider on the day.
- Next upside target is seen at 182.3bps, the 50% retrace of the Dec/Mar range.
- Govies have been more steady in the past couple of hours but they continue to see heavy two way Volumes.
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).
