EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Ukraine Violating Ceasefire; Trump 30-Day Plan Gains Support
May-09 10:07
Russia: Ukraine Violating Ceasefire; Trump 30-Day Plan Gains Support (from our Political Risk Team)...
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US: SOFR FIX - 09/04/25
Apr-09 10:07
SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME
- 1M 4.32092 0.02911
- 3M 4.22965 0.01943
- 6M 4.05294 0.01766
- 12M 3.80474 0.03121
BOE: VIEW CHANGE: JP Morgan add a September cut; 3.25% terminal by Feb26
Apr-09 10:06
- JP Morgan already expected a 25bp cut in May and "continue to expect a pause in June, but will revisit this judgement after the data covering that period roll in" citing a larger impact from employers NICs on inflation than on employment.
- "If our growth forecast proves to be correct [revised down by 0.6% over the next 5 quarters] we would then expect the BoE to ease more quickly in 2H25." JPM now looks for sequential cuts between August and November (the September cut is additional) to 3.50% by year-end.
- "We have left in the cut for next February, which would mean a new lower terminal rate of 3.25%" down from 3.50% previously.
BONDS: Tnotes/Bund spread extends its wideningh bias
Apr-09 10:00
- Tnotes/Bund spread is slowly clearing the 175.00bps level, edging towards 10bps wider on the day.
- Next upside target is seen at 182.3bps, the 50% retrace of the Dec/Mar range.
- Govies have been more steady in the past couple of hours but they continue to see heavy two way Volumes.
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).
