POLAND: Ukraine Talks Support CE3 Currencies Despite Lingering Concerns
- Following US President Donald Trump's phone calls with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts, Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote that "all we need is peace. A JUST PEACE" and stressed the importance of coordination between the US and Europe. Meanwhile, President Andrzej Duda's chief of staff said that his views on Ukraine's NATO membership have not changed and "it is in Poland's interest that Ukraine keeps striving for NATO and European Union membership."
- The zloty continued to appreciate yesterday alongside regional currencies amid hopes for a near-term pause Ukraine fighting. Speculation to that effect has been doing the rounds even before Trump's comments. Sentiment towards local assets has improved despite apparent consensus in the local geopolitical analyst community remains that an outcome which would not involve sufficient guarantees of Ukrainian sovereignty could backfire over the longer term.
- Prime Minister Tusk will meet with Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai in Warsaw later today and both will speak to the media at 10:25GMT/11:25CET. Earlier this week, Tusk said he would be meeting with representatives of Google and Microsoft in the coming days to discuss strategic investment projects.
- Statistics Poland will release a preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP at 09:00GMT/10:00CET.
- Later in the day, December current account balance will cross the wires at 13:00GMT/14:00CET.
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AUDUSD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Clear Downtrend
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6358 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6240/0.6302 20-day EMA / High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.6197 @ 08:00 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 0.6131 Low Jan 13
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.5994 1.618proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and last Friday’s sell-off plus Monday’s trend low, reinforces this theme. The pair has breached support at 0.6179, the Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position too. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 0.6100 handle next. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6240, 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6358.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 89.54/89.56.
EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls
European Equities are set for a decent Open, should still be short of pre NFP level, Estoxx futures (VGH5) would need a test back to 5040.00.
And for the US Emini, it would need another 55 points gains, up to 5950.25 for an NFP reversal.
- Calls: Estox 50: +0.94%, Dax: +0.58%, CAC: +1.03%, FTSE +0.16%, SMI +0.91%.
