SECURITY: Ukraine Peace Talks Could Start This Winter, Tusk
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said today at a weekly cabinet meeting that peace talks on the war in Ukraine might start "this winter."
- Bloomberg reports: "Tusk told reporters he’ll speak with Volodymyr Zelenskiy later on Tuesday. He will also host French President Emmanuel Macron in Warsaw on Thursday to follow up on his talks with the Ukrainian leader and US President-elect Donald Trump in Paris on Saturday."
- Tusk said at the meeting that Poland's assumption of the rotating six-month presidency of the Council of Europe on January 1 will make “Warsaw co-responsible for what the political landscape will look like,”
- Bloomberg notes that Tusk added that the period will "perhaps" coincide with “the negotiations, which may - there are still question marks — start this winter”, without elaborating.
- Tusk's comments come in the wake of a flurry of diplomacy ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration that has increased optimism of talks towards a negotiated ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s spokesperson said yesterday that Ukraine will hold a meeting of key European allies this month to discuss the prospect of NATO membership and to "coordinate a joint position and ensure Ukraine is strong for talks and on the battlefield.”
- Trump said in a social media statement following a trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy and French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday: “There should be an immediate ceasefire [in Ukraine] and negotiations should begin.”
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Historical bullets
JGB TECHS: (Z4) Bounce Reverses
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- PRICE: 143.70 @ 16:14 GMT Nov 08
- SUP 1: 143.39 - Low Nov 07
- SUP 2: 142.23 - Low Jul 02
- SUP 3: 140.21 - 1.236 proj of Mar 22 - Nov 1 ‘23 - Jan 15 price swing
Prices fell further Thursday, extending the recent pullback. The return lower at the start of this week has culminated in a break of 143.57, marking both the Jul 17 high on the continuation contract as well as the Oct 22 low. For now, the 50-dma tops out at 144.32, and marks first resistance. A continuation higher would open 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont) and a bull trigger.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Late 2Y/10Y Ultra-Bond Flattener
- Flattener crossed late Friday at 1645:30ET, DV01 $322,000
- -8,900 TUZ4 102-23.88, sell through 102-24.38 post time bid vs.
- +3,700 UXYZ4 113-16, post time offer
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.4179 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1 / 6
- PRICE: 1.3910 @ 16:29 GMT Nov 8
- SUP 1: 1.3836/22 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6
- SUP 2: 1.3744 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
USDCAD reversed course Wednesday and recovered from Tuesday's low. The trend outlook is unchanged, it remains bullish. Attention is the key resistance at 1.3946, the Aug 5 high. This hurdle has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high and a key medium-term resistance point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3836, the 20-day EMA.
