NATGAS: Ukraine Needs up to $1bn More Fuel for Upcoming Winter
Ukraine needs up to $1bn of additional fuel to get through the upcoming winter heating season, according to Reuters calculations.
- Ukraine has about 11bcm of gas in storage, and 80% of the government’s 13.2bcm target, said Yurii Boiko, a supervisory board member at Ukrenergo.
- Gas reserves on Sep. 14 exceeded last year’s levels for the first time this year, reaching 12.055 bcm, according to ExPro data.
- Ukraine’s gas storage was just 24.2% full at 77.79TWh on Sep. 17, GIE data shows.
- Officials warn that further attacks on production or storage sites could force Ukraine to revise its targets.
- Last winter, blackouts lasted up to 18 hours a day in some areas as pre-winter stores of 12.8bcm proved insufficient, said Serhiy Makogon, former head of the Ukrainian gas transmission system.
- While Ukraine is establishing routes to receive natural gas via European LNG terminals and pipelines, such flows are “still too expensive,” said James O’Brien, head of LNG at D. Trading, cited by Bloomberg.
- Existing interconnectors allow Ukraine to import more than 60mcm/d per day and enough to cover daily demand. Poland is working to double annual capacity to 4bcm by early 2026.
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US TSYS: Post NAHB Housing React
- Treasury futures trade steady to mixed - at/near lows after NAHB Housing Market Index decline.
- Currently, Sep'25 10Y contract trades steady at 111-19 vs. 111-18.5 early overnight low, 10Y yield +.0097 at 4.3257. Curves mildly flatter: 2s10s -.052 at 56.281, 5s30s -.154 at 107.879.
- No more data ahead, Fed speak on tap with Fed VC Bowman interview on Bbg TV at 1245ET
BONDS: Gilt Futures Through Support
An uptick in benchmark global equity index futures through the opening bell on Wall Street provides some fresh pressure for core global FI markets before stalling, while some offset came from a downtick in oil.
- Gilt futures have pierced previously flagged Friday lows, exposing next support at 90.59. Yields ~1.5bp higher across the UK curve. 10s hit the highest level since late May (4.715% last). Next upside target is the 29 May high (4.765%). 50-Year yields pierce Friday’s cycle high, to trade less than 4bp below the psychological 5.00% level.
- TY futures test Asia-Pac lows at typing, but remain above Friday’s worst levels. Yields little changed to 1bp higher across the U.S. curve.
- Bunds are off session lows, curve bull flattens still. A reminder that Friday’s bear steepening set the tone for wider core global FI, but was more reflective of longer run headwinds for Bunds than new news.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6543.43 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and Alltime High
- PRICE: 6471.50 @ 14:49 BST Aug 18
- SUP 1: 6392.29 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 3: 6267.88 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, supports to watch are; 6392.29, the 20-day EMA, and 6267.88, the 50-day EMA.
