NATGAS: Ukraine Needs up to $1bn More Fuel for Upcoming Winter

• Treasury futures trade steady to mixed - at/near lows after NAHB Housing Market Index decline.
• Currently, Sep'25 10Y contract trades steady at 111-19 vs. 111-18.5 early overnight low, 10Y yield +.0097 at 4.3257. Curves mildly flatter: 2s10s -.052 at 56.281, 5s30s -.154 at 107.879.
• No more data ahead, Fed speak on tap with Fed VC Bowman interview on Bbg TV at 1245ET

An uptick in benchmark global equity index futures through the opening bell on Wall Street provides some fresh pressure for core global FI markets before stalling, while some offset came from a downtick in oil.

• Gilt futures have pierced previously flagged Friday lows, exposing next support at 90.59. Yields ~1.5bp higher across the UK curve. 10s hit the highest level since late May (4.715% last). Next upside target is the 29 May high (4.765%). 50-Year yields pierce Friday’s cycle high, to trade less than 4bp below the psychological 5.00% level.
• TY futures test Asia-Pac lows at typing, but remain above Friday’s worst levels. Yields little changed to 1bp higher across the U.S. curve.
• Bunds are off session lows, curve bull flattens still. A reminder that Friday’s bear steepening set the tone for wider core global FI, but was more reflective of longer run headwinds for Bunds than new news. 

• RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6543.43 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and Alltime High
• PRICE: 6471.50 @ 14:49 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: 6392.29 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6  
• SUP 3: 6267.88 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1

The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, supports to watch are; 6392.29, the 20-day EMA, and 6267.88, the 50-day EMA.