REFINING: Ukraine Claimed Another Drone Strike on Russia's Ryazan Refinery
Sep-05 07:41
Ukraine claimed another drone strike on Rosneft PJSC’s Ryazan refinery as well as the Luhansk oil depot, the commander of Ukrainian drone forces said on Friday.
- The 340kb/d Ryazan refinery, about 120 miles from Moscow, halted around half of its refinery capacity in early August following a previous Ukrainian drone attack.
- The facility has already been attacked by Ukrainian drones at least five times so far this year.
- The heavy increase in Ukrainian drone strikes in August disrupted more than 20% of Russia’s refining capacity – knocking crude runs to 5.1mb/d in August Kpler reported. The disruption adds new pressures on Russia’s diesel supply and crude export flows heading into the autumn.
- Russia is weighing a gasoline export ban through October Tass reports citing Russian officials with the tight supply situation likely exacerbated by Ukraine drone strikes. The ban was recently extended through to the end of September.
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GILTS: Bear Steepening Ahead Of Global Supply
Aug-06 07:34
Gilts follow peers lower at the open, with a soft start to this week’s U.S. Tsy issuance and a move away from Tuesday lows in crude oil futures eyed.
- Note the European and U.S. issuance (detailed earlier) is due today and may be providing some weight this morning.
- Futures through yesterday’s low but within this week’s range.
- Lows of 92.36 seen so far.
- Bears will look to force a break of Monday’s low (92.24) to expose the 20-day EMA (91.86), as they look to quell some of the recent bullish momentum. Initial resistance at yesterday’s high (92.84).
- Yields 1.5-3.0bp higher, curve bear steepens.
- 2s10s back above 70bp after the first close below since early July, while 5s30s remains pinned around 140bp.
- GBP STIRs a little more hawkish than pre-gilt open levels, SONIA futures flat to -3.5. BoE-dated OIS still showing ~48bp of easing through year-end, with over 90% odds of a cut priced for tomorrow.
- NIESR comments underscored UK fiscal worry and an in line with market pricing view of future BoE policy moves (detailed in our early morning STIR bullet).
- Little of note on the UK calendar today.
MNI: EUROZONE JUL FINAL CONSTRUCTION PMI 44.7 (45.2 JUNE)
Aug-06 07:30
- MNI: EUROZONE JUL FINAL CONSTRUCTION PMI 44.7 (45.2 JUNE)
SWEDEN: Full Forecast Updates From NIER: GDP Revised Lower
Aug-06 07:29
NIER Forecast Changes below. Diff columns represent changes relative to the June forecast round.
| 2024 | 2025 | Diff | 2026 | Diff | |
| GDP, market price | 1,0 | 0,7 | -0,3 | 2,6 | -0,1 |
| Employment | -0,5 | 0,4 | 0,0 | 0,8 | 0,0 |
| Unemployment | 8,4 | 8,7 | -0,1 | 8,4 | 0,0 |
| Hourly wage | 4,1 | 3,6 | -0,1 | 3,5 | 0,0 |
| CPI | 2,8 | 0,6 | 0,1 | 0,9 | 0,0 |
| CPIF | 1,9 | 2,5 | 0,1 | 1,6 | 0,0 |
| Policy rate | 2,75 | 1,75 | 0,00 | 1,75 | 0,00 |
| Public financial savings | -1,5 | -1,2 | -0,1 | -0,8 | -0,1 |
| Structural savings | 0,1 | 0,2 | 0,1 | -0,1 | 0,0 |
| Maastricht debt | 33,9 | 34,3 | 0,2 | 33,9 | 0,3 |
Source: NIER. Note: Percentage change and percentage points unless otherwise stated
